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May 2006 

Reading Your Opponents Is A Must To Win At Poker by Fred Renzey

Poker is a truly unique gambling game. Other casino games are made  up entirely of mathematics. Poker’s foundation too, is rooted in the  math and the odds. But you’ll never be a winning player if you can’t  understand and use its vital psychological aspect. That’s what makes you more money with  your winning hands and saves you money with your losing hands. Here’s  a good example. Say you’re playing Texas Hold’em, $10/$20 limit and  sitting in a late seat,

you’re holding:
                      A/10

The player under the gun (first to act) is wild, loose and losing.  He comes into the pot raising it to $20 as he often does, and  everybody else folds up to you. If this were a solid player, you  shouldn’t even call him with a hand like A/10, he most likely would  have that beat going in. You wouldn’t even want to flop an ace,  because you’d be likely to have kicker problems (be against A/J or  higher) against a sound opponent.

But a wildman who is “stuck” (losing) could also have a whole flock  of other, weaker hands like A/5, 9/8, 6/5 suited, 4/4, etc, which the  solid player wouldn’t play from that seat. So, you should give him a  call because on average, your hand might well be better than his.

Viva La Difference: Already, we can see that the card game of poker  has an important facet that doesn’t exist in the card game of  blackjack. If you’re dealt 14 in blackjack and the dealer — any  dealer is showing a 5, you should stand every single time. It doesn’t  matter which dealer you’re up against because every dealer in the  world must play that 5 the exact same way. So there’s absolutely no  psychological analysis in blackjack, but only the odds. In poker  however, your correct play varies according to how your opponent plays.

Okay, let’s proceed with our Hold’em hand and take a look at the flop:
                      A-7-3

You flopped “top pair,” a pretty good hand against a “steamer” (a  loser who’s playing poorly). Chances are, you’ve got the best hand.  Wildman checks and you bet the $10. He calls. The turn card is an  offsuit deuce making the board:
                      A-7-3-2

Wildman checks again. You go ahead and bet the $20 on your pair of  aces — then Wildman check-raises it to $40. Now stop and think. If  Wildman was just steaming, he probably would have bet $10 right on  the flop and just kept on betting all the way. But no. He checked and  merely called your flop bet, then checked again to you on the turn.  Now after you’ve already put a $20 bet into the pot, he cuts loose  with the check-raise. This time, I’m afraid Wildman has a big hand.  Your pair of aces with a suspect kicker are no good. Save this $20  plus the $20 bet that’s sure to come on the river, and fold. He’s  most likely got either “Big Slick” (A/K), or a pocket pair of 7s or  3s. The steamer got lucky on you.

Somebody who doesn’t use psychology to make his decisions would  normally go all the way with a pair of aces when there’s no 3-flush  or pair on the board, because they’ll often be good. But you can save  $40 here by reading the situation. Just muck your hand with the  confidence that if the hole cards were reversed, Wildman would call  you all the way down with his pair of aces.

There were a couple of psychological keys that played a part in the  play of this hand. The first was that since the raiser was a loose  player who doesn’t need much of a hand to raise, you don’t need that  much of a hand to have him beat. So you can give a pre-flop call to a  player like that, where you’d normally have to fold against a solid  performer.

The second, and overriding key was the point where the check-raise  was made. When a check-raise comes right on the flop, your opponent  is usually not all that strong. At that point, he’s usually just  trying to intimidate, or desperately wants to thin the field with a  vulnerable hand. Some of those times he will merely have a flush draw  or an open-ender. But if he plays it soft and slow until the bigger  bet has already been made on the turn, then lowers the boom, he was  most likely setting a trap with something serious. At these times,  you must have the presence of mind to realize this and get away from  your hand.

There are countless other ways to use psychology to improve your  performance at the poker table. Knowing the odds is fine. But in  poker, just playing by the odds is more of a fallback — something you  resort to when you don’t have anything better to go on. Sometimes though, often in fact, the play  of the hand will reveal that it doesn’t matter what the odds are.  This time around your opponent has to have a particular kind of hand  regardless of those odds.

  • Fred Renzey is a poker and blackjack expert, author and gaming  columnist. For a copy of his 218-page poker manual, 77 Ways to Get  the Edge at Casino Poker, send $17.50 to: Fred Renzey, P.O. Box 598,  Elk Grove Village, IL 60009.

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