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February 2008

Video Poker Nibbling  By Linda Boyd

“The counter is gettin’ smarter. They’ve got to where they don’t try to win a big amount of money. They jus’ go around and kinda nibble you. You know, you never feel gettin’ nibbled on ‘til they bite you.” — Benny Binion, 1973 interview by Nevada historian Mary Ellen Glass.

Benny Binion was talking about the annoying blackjack card counters that started using their math skills to gnaw into his profits as early as the 1970s. Binion accepted a certain amount of this behavior, differentiating between skillful play and outright cheating by card-crumpers or markers (small scratches on aces and 10-pointers) in blackjack.

Having worn out his welcome in Texas after killing two men in separate incidents (one was labeled self-defense, while the other was a n’er do well sort, so Binion got a light sentence), Benny was not a choirboy. Still, he ran an honest game and considered cheaters as having a total lack of self-respect; this new card-counting racket, however, was right on the line.

Never did Benny Binion expect the math whizzes to extend their skills into the slot machine arena. That’s because it was 1973 and the first video poker device wasn’t on the gaming floor until the late seventies. Ironically, his statement about the new breed of blackjack players who used their math skills to gain an advantage over the house now applies to smart video poker players as well. Just like back in the early days of blackjack counters, there aren’t many with the ability to play almost perfect video poker and most casinos have downgraded the pay schedules, so the house doesn’t need to worry too much. For those who take the time to learn the games you’ll have good odds of getting an inexpensive or free vacation. Once in a while you’ll even find an outstanding video poker play and you’ll want to recognize your big edge. Here’s a guide to doing both.

Getting Organized: Years ago Taz, one of my students, was referring to a new teacher when he said, “Mrs. Boyd you should talk to him, the kids are all out of control. He needs to get organized.” Wise statement and true for most things in life and video poker is no exception.

Notebook: Your objective is to have all the information you need with you and to make sure you can locate everything quickly and easily. A small book, indexed alphabetically with tabs and everything neatly printed works best. (I just hate it when I can’t read my own writing.)

Tax Information: To keep things simple I suggest you record session win/loss numbers in the same notebook as your casino data. Although the CP 2000 is not my favorite valentine, if Uncle Sam sends it you’ll have an easier time copying/mailing a response to this paper audit of your gambling activities. This method also serves to authenticate the contemporaneous requirement (the IRS wants the records completed at or close to the time of the event), plus it’s a fast and efficient way to locate the information when required. (You’ll find an inset in my book, “The Video Poker Edge,” listing data needed for gambling tax records.)

Game/Machine Location: You won’t want to waste time hunting through paytables to find the machines with the games you want to play. Just a few quick notes in your indexed notebook is all it takes. If you write down the machine numbers then it makes it even easier for the next time.

Number Of Machines: Indicate the number of machines for future reference. If you know there are only a few devices with your game, then plan to go when it’s not crowded or make sure you note an alternative game in your book.

Slot Club: Write the cashback rate and policies as well as the comp requirements for each casino. If you don’t have the data, then make sure you record it once you get there. (You can do this by making a trip to the slot club before you start to play.)

Route: Whether you decide to take the scenic route through the beautiful Midwest or to breathlessly rush from the Strip to Downtown, to local’s spots while in Vegas, you’ll want to have a plan in place.

A) Midwest Travel: If you’re going on a trip and visiting casinos along the way, the Midwest is loaded with great spots, most with excellent promotional offers. For those who subscribe to Midwest Gaming & Travel use the Casino Beat, entertainment, tournament, news and Casino Locator sections to help map your course and make annotations in your notebook.

B) Casino Runs: Not too long ago I read a “casino run” report on a forum that can only be described as sheer genius. This guy was so focused and thorough that it was mind-boggling, and that’s not an exaggeration. You, too, can be fast about doing what you came for and getting out of there if you’ve arranged your coupons in a logical order and made notes on anything else that’s special. (The order may not be alphabetical, for example, but in the same sequence as the casinos you’ve mapped.)

C) Games Other Than Video Poker: Even though this is about video poker, don’t say ‘no’ to a great offer. Case in point is match play coupons (there’s one in Midwest Gaming & Travel) for blackjack, it’s almost a crime not to use them. Record good offers for other casino games in your notebook, say craps or roulette, so you don’t miss them. Never be afraid to try a new game in order to use your coupons. Somebody will show you how to play any game and if other players growl, then so what? You’re just hanging around for the offer and probably won’t ever see them again.

D) Progressives: It’s a good idea to walk around the casino checking on the progressive meters before you find a seat. Sometimes it’s worth waiting for a machine when the progressive makes it a strong play. You could keep the location of progressives in your notebook, indexed alphabetically by casino.

E) Special Promos: It’s best to read mailers before leaving home and noting exceptions once you get there. That’s because some machines may not be eligible for the promotion making another game a better play. Here’s an example:

You planned on playing Not-So-Ugly Deuces (NSUD) with an ER of 99.7283%. You notice that there’s a sign on these machines indicating that they’re ineligible for slot points and promotions. You see that there’s no sign on the 9/6 Jacks or Better (JOB) with an ER of 99.5439%. Let’s say the regular cash back is .25% with equal comps, plus there’s a double points promotion. The JOB game now has an ER of 100.0439% (99.5439 + .50) in addition to .25% comps. I don’t count comps as part of the ER, but it’s better to have them than not. Also, be aware that multiple points usually apply only to cash, not to comps. In this case the JOB game is a better play than the NSUD.

Practicing Your Games: Your long-term results will resemble the game’s expected return if you play each game statistically correct. There are too many possible dealt hands to rely on “common sense” so you’ll have to take the time to learn how to play. (This process is detailed in the archives at www.midwestgamingandtravel.com.)

Use Strategy Cards and Software: This shouldn’t be a problem since there are many excellent products on the market today. I use Dean Zamzow’s award-winning software, WinPoker. For info go to www.videopokerpractice.com. Strategy cards should be accurate and easy to use during play. You will get free removable strategy cards and pay schedules (over 200 games) with my book.

Bring Pay Schedules and Strategy Cards to the Casino: There are too many games to memorize all the ERs (there’s a different one for each pay schedule) so remove them from my book or elsewhere and take them along. Likewise with strategy cards, make sure you have them with you. I suggest you quickly review the card, focusing on frequent hands, before starting; after that you’ll only need to refer to it once in a while. If you bring pay schedules, you can decide to play or pass after checking the ER.

Best and Worst of Times: If you want to play on machines with the highest expected return then you will have to time your visit so that there aren’t so many people. Just because you found progressive 9/6 Jacks or Better on the previous visit doesn’t mean the paytable is still the same. The technology on the latest video poker devices allows management to change both the game as well as the pay schedule without even touching the machine.
Best Times: In general, you will want to be in a casino when you don’t have to wait or fight for a seat at full pay machines. There are, however, exceptions.

Weekdays: You’ll find better access to full-pay video poker machines, choice of table games and far better room rates during the week. It’s also easier to get a comped room and you have a better chance of getting an upgrade once you arrive.

Your Birthday or Wedding Anniversary: Did you know that many casinos offer all kinds of perks on your birthday? They range from bonus points on your slot club card to free meals and gifts or cash. Some casinos will even give you something special on your wedding anniversary.

Popular Non-Sports Shows on Television: Many casinos are empty during American Idol and Dancing with the Stars, for example. The exception is sports shows, like boxing matches or football, or any play-offs that draw a rambunctious group to the casino’s bars. Tough to concentrate on strategy with all the commotion.

The Off-Season: If you’re not sure you can check with the Chamber of Commerce to find the least popular time for visitors. That’s the best time for your visit, especially if you plan on gambling a lot. I don’t worry about the heat in Laughlin’s summers, for example, since I’m spending most of my time indoors. (Truthfully, they keep casinos too cold for me; even when it’s 110 degrees outside, it’s freezing in many casinos.)

Family Holidays: You can plan to have Thanksgiving or Christmas dinner at a casino where everything will be low-key and sane during these slow times. Most casinos do an excellent job of preparing special meals and nobody is stuck with the hosting and clean-up work for the group. Afterwards you can choose any game you want, including video poker, without worrying about crowds.

Special Promotions, Multiple Points: You should check the calendar or mailed newsletter to coordinate visits during multiple points days or for a time when there’s a prize drawing. True, you may have a difficult time finding an available machine for the best games, but sometimes it’s worth the wait.

Worst Times: You may think that New Year’s Eve is a great time to be in Vegas and it may be, if your goal is to party. However, if you came to play, especially games involving skill, it’s a very bad idea.

Major Holidays: The most crowded days of the year are New Year’s Eve, Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day. Many people have these days off and are in a celebratory mood, making casinos congested and noisy. Also, you’ll be sharing the road with a lot of drunks, some overly emotional after heavy wins or losses.

Monday Night Football: Need I say more? Super Bowl Sunday, too, very rowdy.

Conventions and Special Events: The traffic is miserable, restaurants crowded and, depending on the event, there may be a lot of young children.

Weekends: One local casino plans on downgrading their paytables on weekends when it’s crowded. With the capabilities of the new devices this is an easy process and I expect more to do the same.

Recognizing Pay Dirt: Sometimes the value of a play is obvious, like the “Wacky Wednesday” promotion, below. However, many times I find an outstanding video poker situation and few are taking advantage of it. You’ll want to know how to evaluate a positive play on your own and then keep it to yourself to increase the shelf-life.

Marketing Glitches: One of my favorite stories is about a marketing mess-up at Harvey’s and Harrah’s in Tahoe, called “Wacky Wednesday.” You were paid an extra 100-coin bonus for all four-of-a-kinds. This meant that 9/6 JOB, which normally has an expected return (ER) of 99.5439%, suddenly had an ER of a whopping 104.2697% and the variance (risk) was only slightly higher at 22.68428 than the regular game’s of 19.51468. That’s before you added possible bounceback cash (mailed) and comps. News of this promotion traveled fast and machines were manned as of the previous evening. In the end, Harrah’s had to modify the rules and did so by posting this notice: “Wacky Wednesday Promotion Out of Control! Our Wacky Wednesday promotion really got wacky last week, as we paid out several hundred thousand dollars in bonuses. Players flocked from all over the country to participate in one of the wackiest and most lucrative video poker promotions seen in the industry. Consequently, we met with the bean counters from Accounting, who reminded us that while ‘tis the season for charity and giving, we are not officially recognized as a non-profit organization, and thus must cease and desist with this wackiness. (I believe they used some different terminology, but I will spare you.) While unfortunate, we are pleased to tell you that the Wacky Wednesday Four of a Kind promotion will take place this Wednesday. However, we have instituted some minor modifications to the promotion, as described below.”

They limited the payouts to some, but not all, four-of-a-kinds.

Adding Things Up: You will sometimes get a pleasant surprise when you add the ER to slot card cashback during multiple points promotions. Simply multiply the regular cashback rate by the multiple offered and add it to the game’s ER. For example, if it’s triple points, the regular cashback is .125% and the game is 10/7 DB, then the ER would be 100.5475%. (.125 x 3= .375; 100.1725 + .375= 100.5475)

Keeping a Poker Face: There was a great local play that was frequently over 104% due to a turbo speed meter on a bank of progressive 9/6 JOB machines. One sad day, however, I found a seat only to discover that loose lips had sunk my ship. When you find a great play, it’s best to keep it to yourself, Doyle Brunson-style and increase the chances of raking in the casino’s chips a lot longer.

Final Thoughts: Benny Binion compensated for his lack of formal education with an abundance of street smarts. He was willing to put up with some nibbling by a few smart players as the price of doing business way back in the seventies. Binion understood the math, it’s okay to spend a few thousand to make a few million.

Today you probably won’t be able to “bring down the house” playing blackjack like the famous MIT team due to new rules and eagle eyes above keeping track of every move. With video poker, however, you can still be the casino’s “Kato” Kaelin if you’re organized, play the best games accurately, take advantage of promotions and go when there’s a better chance of finding vacant machines with good pay tables. Now and then you’ll even stumble upon a situation with a major player’s edge that’s just crying for you to forget about nibbling and go for a big bite.

— Linda Boyd turned to the more profitable game of video poker after years of playing blackjack and live poker. Boyd spent many years as a mathematics educator, a career that proved invaluable in helping her design the statistical tactics featured in her book, “The Video Poker Edge.” Free strategy cards are included with her book. Purchase at www.squareonepublishers.com
 

 

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