One thing’s for sure, the
promotional department did a
bang-up job getting the word out
about the “next best thing”
ready to hit casino floors.
Guaranteed Play (GP) got more
publicity than Britney Spear’s
opening act for the MTV Music
Awards. Not only that, but it
had potential applications for
video poker as well as slots and
some table games, like
blackjack. I had been reading
about GP for quite a while, and
since it seemed to be a big hit
with both focus groups and at
the Global Gaming Expo (G2E), I
decided to take a closer look.
Game Development:
International Game
Technology (IGT) and
Walker Digital
partnered to develop
some new games; the
first product of their
collaboration was
Guaranteed Play. Jay
Walker contracted
Action Gaming
(creators of
multi-play, a huge
success) to develop a
new gaming format. The
idea was to come up
with a gaming concept
designed for casual
players who were
willing to give up
their small stake in
return for playing
time.
Jay Walker actually
compared it to going
to the movies and
dinner, strictly
entertainment. Even
when someone pointed
out that gamblers
wanted some excitement
and risk, Walker was
adamant that reading
the mind of players
wasn’t rocket science
and pushed forward.
Quoting IGT’s video
poker director, John
Daley, “Our biggest
challenge has been
players who say it’s
too good to be true.
They’re looking for
the catch.” Industry
giants IGT, Walker
Digital and Action
Gaming use test
groups. According to
Daley, individuals
making up the focus
groups said they liked
the idea of knowing
where their money was
going.
A problem I see with
guaranteed play as
well as other games
might be that those
developing the product
probably aren’t
gamblers. In fact,
that’s why some of the
instructions on video
poker devices are
faulty, they were
written by
non-players. (For
example, in video
poker you hold cards,
and some instructions
tell you to discard;
correct idea, but a
poor way of wording an
explanation.) As for
the focus groups, they
were told GP’s odds
were about the same as
for traditional games,
which in my estimation
is not entirely
accurate. And since
testers in these
situations are playing
with fake money,
sometimes their
perceptions are
distorted. The math
will be clear in the
next section as to why
GP’s expected return
(ER) is not close to
the theoretical return
with the traditional
format. I think it
would have been more
accurate to name the
game “Pay to Play.
”Here’s how it works.
The Rules: You deposit
money into a video
poker machine and a
screen pops up asking
if you want to play
traditional video
poker or GP. If you
select GP, then the
display screen will
list the rules. After
you indicate that you
agree to the rules of
the games, your
purchase will begin.
The all-important
credit meter begins
with zero credits and
the game meter,
something not on
traditional machines,
indicates how many
games remain. Each
time you play a hand
(a hand and a game
mean the same thing)
one game is subtracted
from the game meter
and five credits are
subtracted from the
credit meter. You play
each hand until one of
two things happens.
You have no games left
on the game meter
because you have
played exactly the
number of hands
purchased. Or you
decide to cash out,
forfeiting all
remaining games; you
will have played less
than the number of
hands purchased.
If you play all games
purchased, then one of
three situations will
apply. You have a
positive number of
credits. In this case
you print your ticket
and can cash it in
like any other TITO.
You have zero credits.
In this case your
session is over and
you can deposit more
money to play a new
session or leave. You
have a negative amount
of credits and have
the same options as in
the second situation.
You can’t cash out
your ticket to play
another machine and
you can’t switch
games. I’ll explain
why in the next
section.
Specific Example:
Let’s say you’ve
decided to play a
quarter 9/6 Jacks or
Better (JOB)
Guaranteed Play game.
You pay $20 for 75
games and you’re ready
to roll. See the blue
chart below. Note that
“NA” means “not
applicable.”
See the blue chart
below. Note that “NA”
means “not
applicable.”
You can see that you’re always
exactly 80 credits, or $20
behind the traditional game.
Now, I could have just said
that, but it wouldn’t have the
same impact as actually seeing
what’s taking place. JOB pays
double your wager for two pair,
but, other than a royal, there
are few big jackpots. (A
straight flush, paying 250
credits is the other possibility
with a probability of 1 in
9,148.) It translates to meaning
that at the end of the 75 games
you’re likely to be fairly close
to your original credits on the
meter. Even if you have some
hard luck, like in this example,
you’re more likely to remain
positive in a 9/6 JOB game at
the end of 75 games, than in
riskier games like 9/6 Double
Double Bonus (DDB). However, in
a more volatile game, like DDB,
you can hit a secondary jackpot,
like four aces with a kicker
(2,000 credits) and then cash
out. You’ll still be 80 credits
behind with GP, but you’ll have
75 chances to have a big win.
(The odds of getting four aces
with a kicker are more than 1 in
16,000, definitely a long shot.)
Notice that you still lost money
in traditional play, since you
went from $20 to $15, but you’re
better off than in GP where you
have no money to cash out.
Analyzing The Math: The way to
determine how many hands you can
play on a specific amount of
money (on average) is to
determine the long run cost of
each hand and then divide your
stake by this amount. Following
is an easy example.
The game is 9/6 JOB with an ER
of 99.5439%. Your personal ER is
99.2%, since you make some
mistakes. The casino has a .8%
edge. (100%-99.2% = .8%;
converting .8% to a decimal is
.008.) Your bet is $1.25 each
hand on a quarter game, assuming
a max bet. Each hand will cost
you one cent. ($1.25 x .008 =
$0.01.) At a cost of a penny per
hand with a $20 stake, you can
play 2,000 games of 9/6 JOB,
even with a lot of mistakes,
over the long run. ($20/.01 =
2,000; to check your work 2000 x
.01 = $20.)
With this in mind, consider what
the casino is giving you for
your twenty, 75 hands and zero
credits instead of 80 credits or
a long term average of 2,000
hands for the same $20.
You may wonder why you seem to
go through so many twenties
without playing close to 2,000
hands in the short term. Partly
it’s because the hands that make
you healthy are infrequent, even
in relatively non-volatile games
like 9/6 JOB. *For example, a
royal only occurs once in 40,000
hands, but accounts for 1.98% of
the ER, four of a kind once in
400 hands and accounts for 5.91%
of the game’s ER, and a full
house once in 87 hands, but
represents a whopping 10.36% of
the ER. Failure to get any of
these three infrequent hands,
entirely possible in the short
run, removes a huge 18.25% from
the short term ER. *Note that
the actual figures are 1 in
40,390.55 (royal), 1 in 423.2722
(four of a kind) and 1 in
86.86431 (full house).
The Games: Volatile games like
DDB are more likely to have
short term results that deviate
from the games long term ER.
That’s because the more
volatile, the greater the
likelihood of relying on
high-paying infrequent hands to
achieve the game’s ER. For GP
you’re better off with a more
volatile game so you can make a
big hit, even though it’s
infrequent, and leave. GP allows
you to cash out anytime you
want, but you’ll lose your
remaining games. If the ER gives
the house an advantage anyway,
it’s more likely that you’ll
lose credits than win by playing
the remaining hands after your
big hit. Of course the more
hands you get for your twenty on
volatile games, the better.
You’ll get more chances to make
an infrequent winning hand when
you have more games or chances.
Unfortunately, Station casinos
in Nevada piloted GP on low risk
games and even used downgraded
pay schedules, like 8/5 JOB. All
of these casino advantage
conditions add to the
dissatisfaction of players.
The reason you can’t switch
machines or games, even on other
devices with GP is that the
number of games you buy depends
on the base game you selected.
For example, you may be offered
200 games of JOB for $40, but
only 150 games of DDB, a more
volatile game, for the same
amount of money. They don’t want
you taking your ticket purchased
for 200 JOB games, changing
machines and selecting DDB. Nor
do they want you purchasing 200
JOB games and switching to DDB
on the same device. In general,
the more volatile the game, the
fewer games you’ll be able to
buy.
The big picture is that you’re
better off with more “hit and
run” hand possibilities rather
than having to rely on the royal
to get ahead. This translates to
looking for the most hands on
the most volatile game you can
find if you’re going to play GP.
Strategy: If you play a
conservative game like JOB, then
you’re likely to end up rather
close to your original credits,
that’s 80 for traditional play
and 0 for GP, after playing a
relatively few games, like 75.
However, if you’re into negative
territory and running out of
hands, then you have to deviate
from basic game strategy to cash
out credits. For example, if you
have one hand left and you’re
dealt two pair, you’d normally
keep both pair in JOB to go for
the full house. If your credit
meter is -50 you should go for
four of a kind (hold one pair)
because with a full house you’d
still not cash out credits.
There are common sense
deviations from basic strategy
like this, but no formal
strategy has been written. It
would be very difficult for me
or anyone else to write a formal
strategy and almost impossible
to make it useable.
Future Applications: Guaranteed
Play could be an ideal vehicle
to introduce new options or as a
promotional tool to draw more
players to video poker or other
games. (Remember Bob Stupak’s
Vegas World coupons?) There
really was a lot of merit to
what both Jay Walker and John
Daley had to say. Video poker
players are constantly saying
that they don’t care if they
lose the money they came with
but they do want some playing
time. Also, it’s a good format
for targeting conventioneers who
are infamous for coming to Vegas
with one white shirt and a
twenty and leaving town with
both. Why not separate the
convention visitor from his
twenty?
Promotions: The original idea of
using Guaranteed Play for
promotions was an outstanding
concept; say a vacation package
that includes some video poker
play. Some people who’d probably
never play on their own might
like it and try regular games on
traditional devices. The casino
won’t even have much to pay out,
like the old Vegas World
packages. Seems to be a huge
value, but really inexpensive,
plus it will draw more players.
New Games: Offering the GP
format to introduce brand new
video poker choices would be an
excellent way to allow players
to try something different. One
reason that most new games fail
is that players don’t want to
invest in unfamiliar, quirky
games. Many would be willing to
take a shot if they were
guaranteed a number of hands,
especially if more than 75 games
were offered for the $20. There
are many other applications for
Guaranteed Play as well.
Final Thoughts: Like Britney
Spear’s MTV performance, there
was lots of hype about
Guaranteed Play. Neither was
quite ready for prime time, but
both have excellent potential
for the future. If GP finds the
right niche, then it could still
be a major breakthrough for
video poker and other casino
games.
—
Linda Boyd turned to the more
profitable game of video poker
after years of playing blackjack
and live poker. Boyd spent many
years as a mathematics educator,
a career that proved invaluable
in helping her design the
statistical tactics featured in
her book, “The Video Poker
Edge.” Free strategy cards are
included with her book. Purchase
at
www.squareonepublishers.com
