June 2008
 

Pick 'Em Poker by Linda Boyd


Pick ‘Em Poker (PKM) is one of the eight recommended games in my book, “The Video Poker Edge” (I include a free strategy card for each game). This month, I’ll tell you what makes PKM so special.

Reasons to Play: The best way to put PKM into perspective, is to compare it with the oldest and best known video poker game, Jacks or Better (JOB). Although you’ll only want to play 9/6 JOB, you’re sure to find some version in virtually every casino that offers video poker. PKM, however, trumps JOB in every possible way. Better ER, easier strategy, lower variance (assuming full-pay version) and compliance with statutory requirements for locations outside of Nevada. Here are the details.

Expected Return (ER): This is one of the most important considerations for video poker or any other casino game. It means your expected long-term results, assuming mathematically correct play. With few positive games remaining on the casino floor, PKM has a return close to 100% before you even add the comps and cashback plus any other promos. Full pay PKM has an ER of 99.9531%, higher than full pay JOB with an ER of 99.5439%.

Easy Strategy: PKM is one of the rare video poker choices that is intuitive, meaning just that “common sense” is often the correct play. Part of the reason is, you only have two choices after the deal, unlike traditional video poker games like JOB where there are 32 possible choices.

Practice Tools Available: Even though it’s an easy game to learn, the format is different from traditional draw poker. There’s some new vocabulary and you must place a greater emphasis on gaps or spaces between cards than in most games. (Specific details in the strategy section.) Fortunately there’s excellent software on the market to help you. I use Dean Zamzow’s WinPoker, but there are several excellent tutorial products. I recommend that you use a strategy card for reference during play.

Volatility: Full-pay PKM has a lower volatility than full-pay JOB, which translates to less risk and a longer-lasting bankroll. Make sure you refer to the section on ‘variance’ after Table 1.2, since this does not apply to every pay schedule.

Legal Compliance: This game meets statutory requirements for states mandating games having ERs that are less than 100%. In fact, part of the beauty of PKM is that with an ER of 99.9531% it comes so close to the 100% maximum legislated in many states outside of Nevada, without going over. It’s an excellent choice for Midwest players.

Game Instructions: In PKM you’re dealt the first two cards of your final hand on the left of the display screen and given a choice of two stacks of three cards on the right side of the screen. You will only see the first card in each of the two stacks, of three cards on the right of the screen. You must use the one revealed card to choose one of the two stacks. After you have selected one of the two stacks all three cards are revealed to complete the final five-card hand.

Here’s an example: Dealt: Two cards on the left of the display screen are a seven of hearts and a king of spades; the two cards on the right hand side of the display screen are a nine of hearts and a six of spades. You are stuck with the two cards on the left as part of your final hand (in this case the seven of hearts and the king of spades) and you must choose either the stack with the nine of hearts on top (the other two cards are concealed) or the stack with the six of spades on top (the other two cards are concealed).

Draw: You will receive the revealed card on top of the stack you choose, plus the two other concealed cards. In this case the correct play is to select the stack with the nine of hearts on top. The machine will deal that card plus the two cards underneath forming your final hand of five cards. Note that the reason you would select the stack with a revealed nine is that this game pays for a pair of nines or higher (more on strategy later).

Please see Table 1.1 Full-Pay Pick’Em


Interpreting the Data: You will have a better understanding of this game after the meaning of each column of data is explained.

Five-Coin Return: Like most video poker games, you will only get the indicated ER if you play max coins, in this case it’s five. This column indicates the return you will receive for your five-coin wager for each indicated combination.

Occurs Every: This means you are statistically expected to get this hand once every whatever number you find in this column. For example, you’ll see the royal flush occurs once every 351,817.7 hands, rare indeed. On the other hand, a pair of nines or better occurs approximately once every 4.4 hands and returns twice as much as a pair of jacks or better in 9/6 JOB, which occurs approximately once every 4.7. That’s why you can hang on to your bankroll for so long.

Percent of Return: If you add all of the figures in this column it will equal 100% or all of the game’s ER. (Figures in Table 1.1 are rounded to the nearest one hundredth of a percent, so it will be close, but not exact.) This column puts the risk factor into perspective. For example, less than 1% of this game’s ER comes from two very rare hands, the royal flush (0.34%) and the straight flush (0.62%). 0.32% + 0.62% = 0.94%, which is slightly less than 1%. On the other hand, a whopping 64.31% of the ER comes from the two most frequent hands, two pair and a pair of nines or better. (18.63% + 45.69% = 64.31%) Any time a lot of the return comes from frequent hands and just a small portion from rare hands, the game has a lower risk and the short-term results are more likely to resemble the ER. The rarity of the royal should have slot directors breathing a sigh of relief.

Percent Probability: If you add all the figures in this column it will equal 100% or all of the game’s final hands. (In this case, figures are rounded to the nearest thousandth of a percent so they will add up to 100.001% instead of 100%, very close.) You should note that 66.846% of the time, or slightly more than two-thirds of the time, you will end up with nothing. In comparison, you will receive nothing 54.5443% of the time in 9/6 JOB, or a little over half the time. That’s why every slot manager should have the full-pay version of PKM on their casino floor. Data indicates players get bored with JOB and stray to house advantage games; the likelihood of switching games is even greater with PKM since the frequency of receiving nothing is so much higher than with 9/6 JOB.

Alternate Pay Schedules: Even though I recommend that you stick to games close to 100%, you may find a version with a different paytable and want to play anyway. Table 1.2 gives you the ER for other PKM versions; use it to determine whether you still want to play.

See Table 1.2 Versions of Pick’Em


Interpreting the Data: Often people keep repeating an erroneous statement until most people accept the mistake as correct. That’s definitely the case when it comes to the variance on the game PKM. I hear people say the game has a lower variance than JOB. However, this is only true if you’re playing certain versions of PKM as you can see in Table 1.2. (The variance for 9/6 JOB is 19.51468, 8/5 JOB is 19.32326, 7/5 is 19.17190; unlike PKM there’s little change in the variance with different versions.)

Pay Schedule: Refer to Table 1.1 and start with the lowest paying hand in the hierarchy, in this case a pair of nines. For example, the first number in each case is a 10, meaning a pair of nines or higher returns 10 coins for a 5-coin wager.

Expected Return: Although defined in the “Reasons to Play” section, if you refer to Table 1.2 you’ll notice major ER changes with seemingly minor changes to the pay schedule. Notice that with PKM the royal flush occurs so rarely that dramatically increasing the payout from 6,000 coins to 10,000 coins (5-coin bet) has little impact on the game’s ER. The most important thing for a player to look for is the 5-coin return of 25 for three-of-a-kind and 55 for a straight.

Variance: This refers to the likelihood that short-term results will vary from the ER; the lower the number the less likely to vary, and the higher the number, the more likely to vary. You have better odds of your bankroll lasting longer when the variance is low. I included the variance for each version so you can see the fluctuations every time the royal pays 10,000 coins instead of 6,000 coins. That’s because the more a game relies on rare hands to achieve the indicated ER, the riskier it becomes. You will have to go for a long-shot more often, which can kill your bankroll. In this case the royal only occurs around once every 351,800 hands (in other games it occurs approximately once every 40,000 hands, around 8.8 times as often).

Game Overview: PKM is a non-traditional video poker choice. It is lots of fun if you’ve never played it before, but it can get tedious after a while. You need to have a lot of patience because your credits don’t fluctuate as much as in more volatile games. Although you only need a pair of nines or higher to have a return of double your wager, you will rarely receive a heart-stopping win. If you play 600 hands per hour, then you’ll have a royal around once every 586 hours and a four of a kind around once every four hours. Casinos definitely won’t have to worry about too many hand-paid jackpots.

Game Strategy: For perfect play you should both practice on the software and use a strategy card during play. If you’re a recreational player this section will be enough to make you good at the game.

Terms: Since PKM is different from traditional video poker games you must learn some new vocabulary and focus on gaps between cards more than in other games.

Consecutive Cards: A sequence of cards with no spaces between them. For example, a six, seven and eight are three consecutive cards.

High Cards: In this game, it’s nines or higher instead of jacks or better like most games. If you’re playing quickly, it’s easy to forget and make a careless mistake as a result. That’s why if two cards seem equal as far as selection, you should choose the higher card. For example, if the two stacks are an eight and a nine and appear to be an equal choice, select the nine; even though you may have forgotten that nine is a high card, you’ll have selected correctly.

Low Cards: In this game it’s eights and lower.

High Pair: A paying pair; in this game it’s a pair of nines or higher.

Low Pair: A non-paying pair; in this game it’s a pair of eights or lower.

Gap: A space between cards that must be filled to make a consecutive sequence. For example, a five and an eight have two gaps, which must be filled with a six and a seven to make them consecutive. In PKM the number of gaps between cards is very important since you have just two choices. If all else is equal, then count the gaps. The card with the fewest gaps for a straight is the correct choice.

Tips: The purpose of this section is to keep you from making some common errors while playing this game.
• Never select a stack that makes three to a royal flush if one of the three is an ace instead of the stack that makes a high pair. Always select the high pair.
• Never select a stack that makes three to a straight flush instead of the stack that makes a high pair. Always select the high pair. (A straight flush is different from a royal flush.)
• Never select a stack that makes a two-gap straight flush with three low cards instead of the stack that makes a low pair. Always select the low pair.
• If both stacks make three to a flush, always select the high-card stack. (Three to a flush is different from three to a straight flush.)
• If both stacks have either high or low cards, select the stack with the fewest gaps to a straight.
• Never select the stack with a high card instead of the stack that makes either a zero-gap or one-gap straight. Select the stack with one or less gaps to a straight.
• Never select the stack that makes a two-gap straight instead of the stack with a high card. Select the stack with a high card. (If both stacks have high cards, then select the stack with the fewest gaps to a straight.)

Final Thoughts: In my opinion, full-pay Pick’Em is the single video poker game that best meets the needs of both players and casino owners. Gamblers have a game that’s easy to play accurately, has an excellent expected return and stretches their bankrolls due to its low risk. Just perfect for both beginners and experts. The casino has a game that will draw customers like flies, is legal in jurisdictions outside of Nevada, and most gamblers will switch to higher variance house-advantage games at some point. That’s because they get bored with non-volatile games like JOB and PKM and will start looking for something more exciting.

PKM is that magical game that’s better from every angle than JOB, a staple in virtually every casino. Now I’m left wondering why we don’t see lots of PKM machines in every casino. In the case of full-pay PKM there’s no need for smoke and mirrors to promote the game — just the truth.

— Linda Boyd turned to the more profitable game of video poker after years of playing blackjack and live poker. Boyd spent many years as a mathematics educator, a career that proved invaluable in helping her design the statistical tactics featured in her book, “The Video Poker Edge.” Free strategy cards are included with her book. Purchase at www.squareonepublishers.com.