December 2008

Part 2: Key Plays In Video Poker by Linda Boyd

If your game is video poker, then you already know that winning relies on both skill and luck. Of course you can’t do anything about the random deal, but you can learn to play accurately after the deal. Although video poker still doesn’t garner as much respect as table games from other players, in reality it’s much more difficult to play correctly. That’s because there are more than 2.5 million possible combinations of five cards dealt from a 52-card deck. Not only that, there are many different game choices and pay schedules. So you must use the correct strategy to maximize your odds of having your results match the theoretical expectations in spite of there being more than 2.5 million possible combinations on the deal. 

 In order to have a basic strategy that is accurate and user-friendly, players should know how to play the most frequently dealt hands. I’ve used several different formats when writing video poker strategy cards; some include both penalty cards and quirky exceptions to the rules. If you want to play all possible hands correctly, then practice on the software and study the long and detailed strategy section in my book, The Video Poker Edge. (I’ve included my free removable strategy cards in the back of my book.) 

 The majority of players just want to know the basics of a game so they can play most of the dealt hands accurately. Yes, they want their long-term results to be as high as the theoretical return, but they don’t want to spend a lot of time practicing on the software to save a few cents. With this in mind, I wrote key plays for popular deuces wild games in Part I and I’ve done the same thing for favorite non-deuces wild games in this Part II. 

 Part II: Non-Wild Card Games
Game Names: In Part I we saw some deuces wild games were named by the players and there was exactly one version (pay schedule) while others were named by the manufacturer and there were several versions for those. Non-deuces wild games are named by the manufacturers and there will be several possible pay schedules for each game. The good news is that it will be easy to find your game at a Midwest casino since the game name on the machine will be the same as the one I use here. The downside is you’ll have to find a decent version of the game on your own. 

Understanding Pay Schedules: When you get to the casino you’ll see many different video poker games, sometimes several on the same machine. You will also find a pay schedule for each game on the device. The thing you won’t find on any casino machines is the expected return for the game if you play it mathematically correct. That information is of utmost importance in determining whether or not you even want to play. The purpose of Tables 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 is to provide you with the all-important theoretical returns, also called expected return (ER), as well as to give you a sense of the risk factor for the game you’ve chosen.

Terms:
Winning Hands: The hierarchy of winning hands may be different when you switch games. For example, the hands that return money are ranked differently for Jacks or Better (JOB) and Bonus Poker (BP). Referring to Tables 1.1 and 1.2 you’ll notice that four aces pays more in BP than it does for the same hand in JOB. This information will appear on every machine you find in the casino.

 TABLE 1.1

TABLE 1.2

TABLE 1.3

Expected Return (ER): The percentage of your wager that will be returned, assuming correct play, over a long period of time. In the short-run all casino games have a component of luck, but over time games that also involve skill, like video poker, will have returns resembling the theoretical expectation. Of course, the longer you play, the more likely actual results are to resemble theoretical results. If you play one million hands in a year and use correct game strategy, then your actual results are more likely to be closer to the expected results than if you just play a single session. This information will not be found on the device you play inside the casino. That’s why you’ll want to take Tables 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 with you.

Variance: This figure refers to the degree the actual results will vary from the theoretical results in the short run. The higher the variance the more likely the short term results will be different from the long term expectation. If a game has a high variance then you could lose or win a lot in a relatively short period of time. That’s why you will need a larger bankroll for high variance games if you want a lot of playing time.

To put this concept into perspective, notice that the variance for 9/6 JOB on Table 1.1 is around 19.5, while the variance for 9/6 BPDX on Table 1.3 is around 32.1, significantly higher. You can conclude that 9/6 BPDX may eat through your bankroll quicker than 9/6 JOB and that it’s a riskier game. 

If you don’t have a pay schedule with you and want to estimate the variance of a non-wild card game you should study the winning hand hierarchy, which will appear on the device. If there are high returns for rare hands and coin shortages for frequent hands, like two pair, then you’ve found a risky game. Typically games that only return even money for two pair, a frequent hand, will have a higher variance.

Versions of Jacks or Better: You’ll see several pay schedules for the same game, jacks or better. You can see from Table 1.1 that the return is the same for all hands except the Full House and the Flush. 

Overview of JOB: Perhaps the best game in the casino for both a beginner as well as an experienced player who wants their bankroll to last a long time while they rack up points on their slot card. It’s available in virtually every casino that has video poker and it’s got one of the least complicated game strategies. 

The downside is that you’ll have to take the time to make sure the version you’ve found is 9/6 JOB or at least a progressive 8/5 JOB. Also, you’ll often find side-by-side games with different payouts for the full house and the flush.

Versions of Bonus Poker (BP): Just because the game you’ve located is called BP doesn’t mean you’ve found a game worth playing. You can see from the information on Table 1.2 that small changes in the return for a full house and flush have a major impact on the ER. Just like JOB the variance for the various versions of the game are close to the same. The fact that just a one coin per bet downgrade has such a negative effect on your return should discourage you from playing less than an 8/5 version of BP. If you’ve decided to play Bonus Poker (BP) then make sure the game pays double your wager for two pairs. Lately I’ve noticed some pseudo-BP creeping into the casinos. If the game says BP but returns even money for two pair then I wouldn’t play, even if it returns more for the full house and flush than the games on Table 1.2. 

Overview of Bonus Poker: This is an excellent choice, even for beginners, as long as you stick with 8/5BP. It’s more exciting than white bread JOB because you get something extra for certain quads and it’s still a relatively low-risk game because you’re paid double your wager for two pair. Frequent mistakes are made by players when they are dealt a full house with three aces and choose to hold just the aces to go for the high-paying four of a kind. A software check will demonstrate the correct play is to hold all cards just like JOB. That’s why my key play strategy will be helpful during casino play.

Versions of Bonus Poker Deluxe: Just like with the other two games, you should stick with 9/6 BPDX if possible and not choose a lower ER than 8/6 BPDX. It’s even more important with this game because it’s the most volatile, or risky to your bankroll, of the three. 

Overview of Bonus Poker Deluxe: This game is both more exciting as well as more volatile than the other two. The reason it’s exciting is that any four of a kind returns 400 coins on a 5-coin bet. It’s a higher risk to your bankroll because you only receive even money for two pair, instead of double your wager; two pair is a frequent hand. 

There are a few instances where strategy deviates slightly from the key play basics, but the errors are minor since the two choices are close in value. One instance is if you’re playing either 9/6 or 8/6 BPDLX instead of 8/5 BPDLX it’s slightly better to hold a 4-flush over three to a royal. (Refer to key play number two and you’ll see the exceptions to holding a low pair are first choice hold three to a royal and second choice hold the 4-flush; correct holds for JOB, BP and 8/5 BPDLX.)

Another close hold deviation from both JOB and BP for BPDLX is that it’s slightly better to hold all cards to an inside straight when every dealt card is low instead of drawing a new hand. (Refer to key play number six.) Given that any four of a kind returns 400 coins for a 5-coin bet you may think that dealt two pair it’s better to hold just one pair, especially if it’s a paying pair like two jacks, but a software check shows it’s not. That’s why you can’t rely on intuition to determine the best holds in video poker. It’s also why you can use the same basic strategy for these three popular games.

Frequency Table: The information below, of course, is the same for deuces wild or any other video poker game that uses a deck of 52 cards. That’s because the dealt hand probabilities have nothing to do with skill but rely solely on “luck” in the short-term. Even though the frequency of hands is the same for all games, the correct strategy changes from game-to-game. You will want to know which cards to hold for frequently dealt hands.  

Frequency of Dealt Video Poker Hands:
 No Pairs: 1 in 2
 One Pair: 1 in 2.4
 Two Pairs: 1 in 2.1
 Trips: 1 in 48 
 Straight: 1 in 250
 Flush: 1 in 510 
 Full House: 1 in 700
 4 of a Kind: 1 in 4,200
 Straight Flush: 1 in 72,200
 Royal Flush: 1 in 650,000

Make sure you understand that the frequency of a final hand is very different than that of a dealt hand. For example, a royal flush will be your final hand approximately once in every 40,000 hands. Unlike the dealt hand odds, which are the same regardless of the game, the final hand has a strategy variable, thus it’s just an approximation. 

 Game Strategies: Casinos will allow you to have strategy cards during play but not electronic devices. There are lots of good reasons why electronic devices are taboo but you may wonder why strategy cards are permitted during video poker play. It’s because you’ll rarely see anybody with a strategy hierarchy chart which are derived directly from the software. The few times I’ve seen them used people took a long time studying the hierarchy and usually played the hand incorrectly anyway. There are far too many vertical lines in accurate charts and you have to locate the highest one on the hierarchy that applies, since frequently more than one applies. Not only that but the casino atmosphere is chaotic and hierarchies use too many abbreviations and small color-coded print. In short, casinos know they are worthless to most players so they generously allow their use.

A good strategy card, on the other hand, is both accurate and very simple to use even in a frenetic casino. There are in fact very few of these on the market. 

Jacks or Better (JOB), Bonus Poker Deluxe (BPDX) and Bonus Poker (BP): You can use the same game strategies for JOB, BPDX and BP. You may wonder why three games that have very different pay schedules, one (BPDX) only pays even money for two pairs, could possibly have the same basic game strategy. One reason is that in spite of the bigger payouts for four of a kind in both BP and BPDX, you wouldn’t change game strategy to go for four of a kind. If you’re dealt any two pairs you’d hold both pair in all three games. (This is not true for some other games, like Double Double Bonus; when dealt two pairs and one pair is aces you would hold only the aces.) There are a few differences for BPDX, which I’ve indicated in the game’s overview section. However, even these few adjustments are minor in terms of cost since the choices are close to equal. 

Key Plays for JOB, BPDX and BP Terms:
High Cards: Ace, King, Queen and Jack
Paying Pair: Pair of Aces, Kings, Queens or Jacks
Low Pair: Non-paying pair
Four to an Inside Straight: Exactly one card will make a straight
Four to an Open-Ended Straight: Either one of two cards will make a straight
Dealt no pairs, hold just the high cards. (If you’re dealt three high cards and one is the ace, then hold all but the ace.)
Dealt a low pair, hold the non-paying pair. (Exceptions are hold 3 to a royal flush—first choice; hold 4 to a flush—second choice.)
Dealt a paying pair, hold both cards. (Exceptions are hold 4 to a royal flush or 4 to a straight flush.)
Dealt two pairs, hold both pairs. (No exceptions.)
Dealt three of a kind, hold all three. (No exceptions.)
Dealt four to an inside straight, hold no cards. (The exception is to hold the four cards if there are either three or four high cards. A second exception for only BPDX is dealt all low cards hold four to an inside straight.)
Dealt four to a flush, hold all cards. (Exception is hold three to a royal flush.)
Dealt a straight, hold all cards. (Exception is hold four to a royal flush.)
Dealt a flush, hold all cards. (Exception is hold four to a royal flush.)
Dealt a full house, four of a kind, a straight flush, or a royal flush, hold all cards. (No exceptions.) 

Final Thoughts:
The only way your long-term results will resemble the theoretical expectations for video poker or any other game with a skill component is if you play correctly. That’s partly why some people accuse casinos of “programming” machines to pay less. (How often have you heard players say, “I made less than expected because I’m not always sure of what I should hold”?) Casinos don’t have to rig machines and they don’t because if they want to have a larger house hold all they have to do is change the pay schedule. That’s perfectly legal. It’s your job as a player to make sure that the pay schedule is fair and that you know the basics for the video poker game you’ve selected. 

— Linda Boyd’s book The Video Poker Edge includes free strategy cards and removable pay schedules. It’s available in major bookstores, amazon.com and Square One Publishers. www.squareonepublishers.com or call (877) 900-2665.