Management is much more sophisticated now than back in the late 70s
when the first video poker device was spotted on the casino floor.
Back then nobody had the software to know the precise way to play
each dealt hand much less the expected return (ER) if played computer-
perfectly. That’s why there was lots of cherry-picking by savvy
players who may not have played completely accurately, but pretty close.
Relatively commonplace were games like Full Pay Deuces Wild
(100.7620%, variance 25.83462) and even some 9/7 Jacks or Better
(100.7995%, variance 17.28500). This was not really a problem for
casinos because it was rare indeed for a player to even come close to
the theoretical return. The main cause of neither casino management
nor players being too sure of the game’s expected return (ER) was the
non-existence of computer-perfect software. This all changed in the
90s when computer software genius Dean Zamzow wrote WinPoker,
enabling players to practice 100% accurate play at home. Not only
that, but players would know the exact ER for every game on the floor
as well as the variance or risk to their bankroll.
Zamzow’s breakthrough software took a while to catch on, so a few
pros were able to make hay for several years. Later, however, the
product was endorsed by a pro and more people became aware of its
importance and the necessity for computer-perfect play. (In my
opinion, it’s still far and away the best practice software on the
market : www.videopokerpractice.com or
www.zamzone.com).
Not only did WinPoker revolutionize video poker play for gamblers,
but it had a huge impact on casino management as well. For the first
time ever, casino owners knew with certainty the potential return for
players who practiced on WinPoker.
Herein lies the problem. Casino decision makers overreacted to the
actual effect of Zamzow’s software on their bottom line. True, smart
players used the tutorial software to play the games accurately.
However, the overwhelming majority of video poker players still don’t
use the tutorial software even though it’s been on the market for
more than 10 years. This means that casinos can rely on their own
accurate data (actual return on each video poker device, rather than
the theoretical expectations with computer-perfect play) to determine
the house’s expected profit.
Casinos can now advertise positive video poker games and still be
sure of making money; in fact, much bigger profits through increased
volume. These choices give an ever so slight advantage to the
miniscule number of gamblers who are capable of perfect play while
drawing in the masses to their casino. After all, even a razor’s edge
would only apply to a small number of lower denomination video poker
players.
Variance:
The variance refers to the likelihood that short-term expectations
will vary or differ from long-term results. The higher the
variance, the greater the probability that there will be
differences between long-term and short-term results. Games that
carry a high variance are a bigger threat to your bankroll than low-
variance games.
Expected Return (ER):
The theoretical long-term return with computer perfect play. This
term is misunderstood by management because they grossly
overestimate the playing skill of the average Joe. The best way to
determine the actual return is to look at the results recorded
inside the device. I have seen these figures first-hand and can
attest to the fact that they vary, but are generally three or four
percentage points lower than the ER. A few people play almost
perfectly, but they’re in the minority and I have seen even good
players make some mistakes. In fact, there is some excellent software
on the market that isn’t computer-perfect due to the debate over
whether remembering rare and quirky plays is even worth the effort.
(Note: I personally favor practicing perfect play.)
Razor Advantage:
Whether the slight advantage is with the house or
player is not as significant as some management teams seem to think.
The reason is that either way, the casino will make a profit because
even with pros, few play perfectly. Case-in-point is when I noticed
pros making some mistakes in FPDW, but weren’t about to slow down to
check some close call holds. The average gambler makes frequent
mistakes and will get three or four percent less than the ER due to
their own mistakes. So whether the slight edge goes to the casino or
player isn’t that big a deal. One could even argue that by giving
players the advantage, the casino has a ready-made attraction for
their ad campaign.
Don’t Take Back:
One of the biggest mistakes casinos make is giving
something to players and then taking it back. For example, a local
casino used to send me $50 a week in bounceback cash and comp me four
tickets to any show. Next thing I knew they had cut me back to $20 a
week and no show tickets. I now play significantly less at that
casino and have let others know about the cutback. Really, none of
this is personal, but it’s difficult not to feel insulted when your
value to the casino seems to be going down. Extrapolating from this
concept, when a casino stops sending offers for comped rooms and
food, their loyal fans start looking for a new team to support. By
making the razor edge close, especially with progressive machines,
the casino can afford to keep the same level of comps and cash.
Selecting the Games:
Believe it or not there are games where both the casino and the
player make a profit. They are progressives where either the royal
flush or several hard to achieve hands are on a meter that grows as
more money is played. The casino sets the meter so they can be sure
they have made a reasonable profit, but there is a point where the
progressive jackpots are high enough so the ER for players is more
than 100%. That’s because the casino has already shaved off their
profit and is now “sharing” the wealth. In addition, the people
playing short-coin are contributing to the progressive meter, even
though they’re ineligible for progressive jackpots since most require
max-coin bets. The other choice good for everybody is the old
standard 9/6 Jacks or Better (9/6 JOB). That’s the very reason you’ll
still see plenty of them in high-roller rooms.
Best Games:
I’ve selected some excellent “razor-edge” games that will be
profitable to casinos and popular with players. Right now you’ll find
at least some of them in most casinos and look for even more in the
future. Of course you’ll still have to sort through some really bad
pay schedules to find the good games, but when uneducated people
throw money in devices with pathetic choices, you can’t blame the
casinos. (I received a complaint from a guy who said he “found” 6/5
JOB and not as many 9/6 JOB in casinos. I wondered why he didn’t just
play the 9/6 games instead of whining. I’m able to “find” lots of
full-priced Jimmy Choo shoes and Balenciaga bags, but certainly don’t
brag about the terrific price if I decide to buy them.)
8/5 JOB:
Players may think this is a poor choice since at reset the ER is
only 97.2984%, a game I wouldn’t play. However, when the royal
flush grows to 8,000 coins, the ER is close to 100% and casinos will
include both slot card cash and other benefits. For those who live in
states with maximum ER statutes, this game is legally permitted.
That’s because they always use the reset ER for progressives when
considering compliance with legislative mandates. The downside,
however, is there’s a high variance since so much depends on a royal
flush to achieve the theoretical return. Note that this figure is
slightly deceptive since you still get double your wager returned for
two pair, a frequent hand. Overall the game is right there on the
edge for both the house and player.
Progressive Illinois Deuces:
At reset the ER is only 97.2984%, a
game I wouldn’t recommend. However, when the game is progressive,
often the case, it can be an excellent play. You can use the same
basic strategy as Not-So-Ugly-Deuces (NSUD), another 20/20 game,
(both return 20 for a 5-coin wager for both a full house and four of
a kind) and the variance is significantly less than other
progressives as the ER approaches 100%. This is one of the most
overlooked good plays in video poker. This is a video poker game
that’s good for both the house and the guest. (Free and user-friendly
strategy cards for this and other games are in the back of my book,
The Video Poker Edge.)
9/6 JOB:
If you look in the high-roller rooms at most casinos, even
those on the Las Vegas Strip, you’ll probably find some 9/6 JOBs.
That’s because casino executives have found that even with a few
percentage points edge over players there’s a good profit for the
house. As I’ve been saying right along, people don’t play perfectly
and video poker is played so fast that if it’s just a triple play
dollar machine and a rather slow paced 800 games per hour, then
$12,000 is run through per hour. Even with a meager 1% advantage, and
usually it’s more, the house makes $120 per hour. Not so bad. Even if
a great player comes along, the casino makes $60 per hour, which
beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
Raising the Ante:
I think casinos are already doing a great job of gradually upping
the stakes for both video poker and slots. That’s because I
constantly hear things like, “My friend just won $500 on a penny
machine! Can you believe that?” Well, yes if the penny slot
actually costs $2.50 per game.
Casinos can reduce their advantage to one that is razor thin when
players are required or tempted to increase the size of their bets.
Multi-Hands:
In the past, high-roller rooms had single-handed games
for higher denominations. People walking through might even mention,
“Hey, did you see that guy? He was playing a $25 machine — it cost
him $125 every single game.” Now there are 100-play dollar machines
that cost $500 per game and people don’t even bat an eye. Even if a
hot-shot player gets 99.5% ER on a game like this, assuming almost
perfect play for 9/6 JOB, the casino has a $2.50 advantage every
game. Even if it’s a slow player at 600 games per hour the casino
will make $1500 per hour off this customer. Better than live poker
even with higher rakes.
Multi-Formats:
This new trend in video poker is really catching on.
Not only are some choices only available in multi-play formats, but
in order to be eligible for the special bonus, the player is required
to deposit extra coins. An example would be Quick Quads, which allows
extra opportunities for the player to get four of a kind. It does
cost six coins instead of five coins to be eligible for the bonus quads.
Final Thoughts:
Video poker is different from both slots and table
games in some key areas. There’s a skill component, unlike slots, but
player levels of skill are much more unpredictable than table games.
That’s because more people buy books on craps, Hold’Em, Blackjack and
other table games. In addition video poker is much more difficult to
play computer-perfectly than a game like Blackjack. There are close
to 2.5 million possible deals with a 52-card deck, and every single
time either the game or pay schedule for the same game changes, so
does the strategy. In fact, there is a basic strategy for Blackjack
that is easily learned and especially relevant with continuous
shuffling devices. That’s because Blackjack counting is effective
when you either alter the size of your bet or basic strategy based on
whether the remaining deck is rich in 10-pointers and Aces. That’s a
mute point with a continuous shuffling device, except for very minor
adjustments if there are many dealt hands in the same round. (Also if
you have a rookie dealer that allows you to see each of several hands
you’re playing before deciding to hit or stand.) This means that the
predictability of skill levels for individual video poker players is
unknown. Although some management teams are uncomfortable about not
knowing which players are truly skilled rather than just lucky, they
do have data showing the profit figures for each device. If they give
the house just a razor’s edge on some games, then not only will the
house come out ahead, but they will also have the best kind of
recidivism; that’s satisfied players coming back for more and letting
others know it’s the place to play.
