April 2010

Boyd's Eye View Video Poker - Waiting for Godot:  A tragicomedy play in two acts by Samuel Beckett  By Linda Boyd

Godot is considered a modern masterpiece although some would say it’s boring to read or watch, not much action. Two main characters, Vladmir and Estragon, both down and out of luck, are trying to determine the meaning of life. They are waiting for Godot to clear up the mysteries; two acts, two days, but Godot never comes. To tell you the truth, I never got the comedy angle, but Steve Martin accepted a role (short stint on Broadway) partly to bring out the humor, which is tough to detect by reading the play. It’s a cynical work and I’m ambivalent about the merits, but it’s still a classic, if for no other reason than Beckett’s genius and that the theme of existentialism was a true literary innovation when it was written. (Godot was translated from the French to the English in the mid-1950s.)

Connecting Godot with the mindset of many top poker players is a no-brainer, just based on their words and actions. Poker stars may seem to take wins and loses in stride, but their game-related quotes are often analytical. Although individual approaches to table poker are unique, during play, the game becomes the center of the gambler’s universe and each player assumes personal responsibility for determining right or wrong, good or bad for that moment in time. Pure existentialism.

For example, Doyle Brunson, who probably never heard of either Godot or existentialism, has said: “Try to decide how good your hand is at a given moment. Nothing else matters. Nothing!” Others have similarly made philosophical statements about playing the players not the cards and so on. (Phil Hellmuth is a possible exception saying: “I guess if there weren’t luck involved I’d win every time.” But poker players are notorious artists of deception so, who knows, he may have a deep thought or two on the topic as well.) For many years great poker players have garnered prestige, bragging rights and even the aura of a Hollywood celebrity in appreciation of their sheer brilliance. In fact, I was told that Chris ‘Jesus’ Ferguson was greeted like a rock star when he arrived at McCarran International Airport.

How about video poker players? Are they, too, revered for their coolness and their great intellect? After all Albert Einstein said in his review of The Gambler that ‘Dostoevsky gives me more than any scientist.’ To say ‘not so much’ goes way beyond hyperbole and understatement and into the realm of pure ridiculousness. So, if you’re in it for the glory, then definitely learn to play Hold’Em and be prepared to study the subject, compete with a huge disadvantage (do you have a sponsor or big endorsement deals?) and hope to stand out in a large pack of competitors who were in line way ahead of you.

The reality is, although truly good video poker players are a rarity, for those who are willing to wait for Godot and do so with intelligence and hard work, there’s an excellent likelihood that he’ll eventually arrive. Of course you have to think like David Sklansky (poker player/author) who said, “When we play, we must realize, before anything else, that we are out to make money.” So you won’t be getting the red carpet treatment at McCarran International Airport in Las Vegas, sponsors or endorsements, but you will be sailing your own ship, sometimes have an advantage over the house and have the self-satisfaction of knowing you are one of the few really skilled players in a very tough game. Doesn’t get more existential than that.

Godot: If your game is video poker, regardless of the specific name or version, Godot absolutely has a possibility of arriving. The probability depends on your individual definition (a royal, a huge jackpot, or just coming out ahead) as well as the game and pay schedule you have selected. If the casino stacks the odds so much in favor of the house that it’s simply hopeless on a reasonable budget, then you may just give up and look for another way to spend your spare time and dime. Patience will vary between players, but eventually each individual will grow weary with the waiting, especially if they are frequent players. In the play we see two acts where Vladmir and Estragon come back two days, but no Godot. We’re left to wonder how many more days they’ll return, whether Godot will ever come and, finally, if they’ll just give up. Eventually even die-hard players, regardless of the game, will give up and forget about whether one more Benjamin would have done the trick.

This is actually true for all forms of gambling. The secret to coming up with a good casino game, then, is to figure out the fine line of profitability between the player and the house that will keep the wheels greased and spinning.

Hope: Vladmir and Estragon in the play may be hobos without material possessions, but they haven’t given up, that’s why they’re waiting for Godot. This same principal is what makes people play any casino game or even get up in the morning to go to work. In fact many would say Godot represents hope. If the entire endeavor is futile, like the many new games that are complete failures, then you’ll see empty banks of machines and covered tables. This can apply to any game on the casino floor, but if we just look at video poker, then we see many games that developers thought would be sure hits, simply fizzle.

For example, guaranteed play seemed like a great choice for players at first glance, but ended up a bust all around. Why? There was virtually no hope of coming out ahead, just a guarantee of playing a specified number of hands. For that, I can just stay home and practice on my tutorial software, absolutely free of charge. (Practicing on tutorial software is a given for all smart players. Go to www.videopokerpractice.com for WinPoker, which in my view is the best practice software on the market.)

If you choose to play a slot machine, then the main variable is luck and if you lose, you’re not at fault. Video poker players, however, like any gambler who selects a game involving skill, have to assume responsibility for their own choices. The free will component that can create both stress and consequences is part of the whole gambling experience. That’s why some of the most brilliant existential writers, like Fyodor Dostoevsky, were also heavy gamblers. (His game was roulette and he actually had to write a story, a novella called The Gambler, on a timeline in order to pay off gaming debts.)

Gamblers may say they go to casinos knowing that they will probably lose whatever money they brought along, but somewhere in the recesses of their minds they’re hoping to win. It’s part of the entire gambling psyche and the very reason why non-gambling techno-geniuses have a bad track record of coming up with winning games. Non-gamblers are confused about how otherwise intelligent people can spend hours either staring at a video screen or molded to a chair at a poker table.

Reliable Standbys:
Manufacturers and casino owners learned the hard way that introducing brand new video poker games was indeed a slippery slope. On the one hand, if they offered a positive return with computer-perfect holds, some experts would use WinPoker software to figure out the playing strategy, while on the other, the overwhelming majority of players wouldn’t even approach the expected return (ER) due to the extreme difficulty of remembering counterintuitive holds. As a result, gaming manufacturers like IGT went back to the drawing board and cleverly returned with new twists to the core games allowing opportunities for bonus money if gamblers wagered extra coins. Not only that, but game makers found a way to call it a nickel game (wink, wink) but require a larger bet than a single-line quarter game.

Multi-Hands: You’ll find familiar choices, specifically the eight games I focus on in my book The Video Poker Edge, in virtually every casino. If it’s a multi-play device, make sure you bet max coins on 3, 5 and 10-play choices. If you’re fortunate enough to find a 50 or 100-play machine, you can play any number of hands without losing money on a royal, just make sure you bet the full 5-coins per hand. Excellent news for serious players because once they learn the game strategy for classics, like 9/6 Jacks or Better, they’re good to go. It’s important that you consider the real cost per hand on the 3, 5 and 10-play devices.

Bonus Possibilities: The most common complaint about white bread Jacks or Better (JOB) is that it’s boring. That’s because there are few hands to get excited about. Four of a Kinds (quads) occur approximately once every 423 hands, Straight Flushes once every 9,148 hands, and a Royal Flush once every 40,391 hands (all assuming correct play). Not only that, but the quads only pay 125 coins for a 5-coin bet rather than extra money for special quads like any of the bonus poker games. This problem is resolved by offering a variety of bonus features for the price of extra coins. For example, Super Times Pay incorporates a multiplier that appears randomly and increases the return on winning hands. In fact, there are an amazing number of bonus possibilities that add excitement to traditional games, like JOB and you can expect more options in the future. I caution you, however, to make sure there is a decent pay schedule on the base game before choosing the new format. Be aware that most of the time the new format of the classic game has a slightly better ER than the base game.

Downgrading Pay Schedules: Recently there was a heated discussion on my video poker forum regarding the tendency of casinos to increase their profit by downgrading pay schedules (www.midwestgamingandtravel.com).

‘Maddog’ said they did some serious downgrading at a casino from 9/6 Super Double Bonus (SDB) to 9/5 SDB and finally a hope-killing 6/5 SDB. Management clearly observed people plopping into a seat without checking the pay schedule. Good for them. Now they can watch their revenues diminish as the myths about changing the dealt hands in the back room or their reputation as the place for ‘suckers only’ permeates their community. It doesn’t even matter whether the reasons are accurate; the bottom line is this casino is viewed as just plain hopeless. Godot left town. One of the most important and overlooked forms of advertisement is word-of-mouth or print; I’m talking about chatter among frequent players and on forums. It’s true that most patrons won’t check pay schedules, don’t practice on the tutorial software and have never read a book on the topic of video poker. However, virtually all local and frequent video poker players listen to the scuttlebutt on the game. If they hear others say it’s a video poker wasteland and that’s compounded by a few consecutive losing sessions, then they’ll be looking elsewhere for their gambling thrills. The truth is there are more ‘elsewheres’ than ever before and even more on the way. So doing whatever it takes to have a good rep among locals is important for casinos; this is especially true if they cater to a neighborhood crowd.

Grapevine
Machine-Tightening: Of all the comments made by casino regulars, this is the one I hear the most. For example, when a local casino moved from a temporary structure to a permanent one, they exchanged a popular bank of progressive Illinois Deuces (ID) for an extremely hideous form of coyote ugly deuces, word traveled fast. ‘Forget about the deuces, the casino fixed them so nobody can win.’ There are around 20, almost always empty machines, replacing around a dozen ‘get there early or wait’ devices. Considering that the expected return (ER) is 98.91% for ID, and that’s with computer-perfect play, the game was a real money maker for the house. Now the casino gets a bigger percentage of almost nothing. I used to remind my business students that 50% of nothing is less than 10% of something. To be sure, most people erroneously think the ‘tightening’ process has to do with the casino adjusting the dealt and drawn hands so that there are fewer winning combinations. I constantly hear people remark that there are fewer four of a kinds, for example. The reality is they are playing fewer hands on the same bankroll because the casino has adjusted the pay schedule. If, for example, the 9/6 JOB machine becomes an 8/5 JOB machine, then the reduced pay for both the full house and flush will account for the player getting fewer hands on average from their given bankroll.

The bottom line for casino management is the results will sour their player base over time and they’ll gradually see fewer customers.

Server-Based: We’re approaching the age of server-based slots and video poker devices. This technology allows the casino to change games and pay schedules from a remote location off the casino floor. As a player you will have to pay close attention to both the game and the pay schedule before you insert money into a machine. It’s less expensive to have the necessary wiring in place when the casino is built rather than ripping up the carpet to install it later. For that reason you’ll find more server-based games in newer casinos so make sure you pay attention to the game on the device. The MGM-owned Aria in Las Vegas was one the first to have a server-based system (60% server based, 40% traditional when their doors opened), but look for more in the future.

I expect to hear a bunch of statements from players once server-based games find their way into local casinos. Keep in mind that everything you hear may not be true. The casinos will not be rigging the games from the back room, but if they downgrade the pay tables you will have a lower ER. Then all the horror stories about management keeping you from winning jackpots will seem true, even if they have no merit.

Waiting: If you think about it, we all spend a good deal of time in life just waiting for an event to happen. For example, we are waiting in the grocery line, for a cab, for a boring class to end, for a doctor’s appointment, a phone call and so on. The same is true for all forms of gaming. In fact, gamblers tend to be more impatient than the average Joe, which explains the seemingly extreme displeasure of some while standing in a long slot club or cashier’s line. Whether you’re playing table poker with real people or the virtual video poker version, non-players have a difficult time understanding the attraction of games that require more waiting than playing. After all, how many hands on average does a good poker player hang in there till the end? Depending on the speed of the dealing along with the number of players, you’ll see your last card around two or three times per hour. There’s lots of waiting. How about video poker? Even fewer hands are exciting if you only get an adrenaline rush from good-sized jackpots. This translates to a very real possibility of never getting a halfway decent jackpot during an entire playing session. In fact, if you choose a volatile game like Double Double Bonus (DDB) and the casino foolishly offers extremely poor versions, say 7/5 DDB, you may burn through considerable bankroll with zero quads. When this happens on several consecutive visits, you may completely lose the urge to return to the den of misery.

Final Thoughts: Well-known existentialists, like Fyodor Dostoevsky and Jean Paul Sartre, certainly had the mindset of a gambler down pat. To quote from Dostoevsky’s The Gambler, ‘Even as I approach the gambling hall, as soon as I hear, two rooms away, the jingle of money poured out on the table, I almost go into convulsions.’

Dostoevsky might have been describing himself since, ironically, he had to write the novella to pay off a gambling debt. Sartre writes of a gambler who, after losing all and fearing for himself and his family, retreats to the reflective behavior of resolving never to gamble again. However, his resolve leads to anguish and what he calls self-deception. It demonstrates that even the most brilliant minds are susceptible to the urge to toss the dice, in spite of game probabilities favoring the house.

What management can’t do and still survive, however, is make the odds of winning a hopeless endeavor, thus insulting the intelligence and killing the joy of their player-base. That’s because, unlike the 1950s, they’re far from the only game in town.

For Vladmir and Estragon there was one and only one spot to wait for Godot and it’s up to the reader to determine whether or not he would ever come. For gamblers in general and video poker players, in particular, there are plenty of variables to consider before choosing the best place to wait and having a fair chance for Godot to actually arrive.

— Linda Boyd, a long-time table game player before turning to video poker, writes for many gaming publications. Her book, The Video Poker Edge, includes free removable pay schedules and her free strategy cards for the most popular games. Available at amazon.com, bookstores or www.squareonepublishers.com.