I used to love it when my friend Willy had an ace showing. That’s because it
was inevitably followed by the same announcement: “The price of poker went
up”! Now I could either fold my tent or, if I had the right cards, plan on a
good shot at a fat pot. Life is good when it doesn’t even take a low pair for
somebody at your table to bluff with perfect predictability.
Unfortunately, the price of poker went up literally if you’re playing the
tables in Vegas. That’s because the rakes (house’s share of the pot) have
increased and so have the stakes, especially on weekends. It’s somewhat
balanced by having more tourists playing every card every hand rather than the
tight-fisted regulars found on week nights. Still, it can get expensive if
your brilliant playing (your opinion) is overshadowed by a rookie’s luck on
the river.
Then there’s video poker. Here you don’t have to worry about a poker face or
playing mind games with others. It’s just plain old all-American what you see
is what you get. One additional thing you’ll be getting is the option to play
several hands during the same game. Sometimes you have to play all hands
(three, five and ten-play devices) in order to be paid 250 for each coin bet
on a royal. In other words, the price of poker went up if you choose one of
the multi-play machines mentioned.
If you’re a smart video poker player you’ll stay on top of all the latest
trends so you can analyze your options and keep the price within your comfort
zone. The truth is that the price of poker for those playing the video version
of poker doesn’t necessarily have to escalate. You’re the one making
decisions about how much you want to risk in order to have an evening’s
entertainment. I just love it when I’m driving, in spite of the horrified
looks on those in the back seat!
Risk of Ruin: Russian mathematician
Evgeny Sorokin came up with a formula to determine the probability of running
out of money, given a specific amount of bankroll, for the game of blackjack
in 1999. Brilliant work and I use this data for ballpark estimates when I
decide to play. Since then other statisticians have developed so-called RoR
(risk of ruin, meaning running out of money) formulas for video poker.
Mathematicians are so excited about this breakthrough that they make several
incorrect assumptions so that the reality is far from the theoretical. Math
people (myself included) are like that. In plain terms several variables must
be known for blackjack and many more for video poker. If you’re playing
blackjack then you must have used the exact rules for your chosen game,
including whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17, for example, when
creating your probability tables. In addition the assumption is that the
length of the session is forever and the player’s skills are computer perfect.
Moreover, the game must have a theoretical return (called theo) greater than
100%. Any time the theo is less than 100% the game is considered negative and
the risk of ruin is an eventual certainty. To me this means your discretionary
budget or mad money alone should determine how much bankroll you take to the
casino.
How about video poker? Once more the length of the session used on the tables
is forever and each game’s RoR is different depending on the individual pay
schedule. For example, the data for 9/6 jacks or better (9/6 JOB) is different
than that for 8/5 JOB and of course if you change game names then a completely
different set of figures is needed. In addition, like blackjack, you must
assume computer perfect playing skills (video poker has around 2.5 million
possible dealt hands per game—more with wild cards).Moreover you’d have to
know and compute the cash back using your slot card as well as promotion
equity, if applicable. In short, even the experts who say they know the exact
RoR are mistaken.
This does not mean you should disregard your available bankroll when making
video poker decisions, but you should understand that you’re dealing with
rough estimates. If you run out of money more quickly than expected, for
example, it doesn’t mean the machine is gaffed.
Bankroll: It’s more practical for
you to determine your bankroll before you head out the door for your
neighborhood casino. That is much more reasonable than trying to use some
highfalutin risk of ruin formula where knowing all the variables isn’t always
possible as explained in the previous section. You should still use logic and
then choose the games consistent with your budget, skill and objectives. Keep
in mind that it’s best to remain within two different types of budgets, your
discretionary (money not needed to pay bills and necessities) as well as your
psychological (money you can lose without feeling upset).
Discretionary Budget:
Sometimes terms are so overused that they lose real meaning until we force
ourselves to focus on them. An example is the oft repeated words
“discretionary income”. Just like the word “transparency” for politicians and
news anchors, gamblers like to talk about discretionary funds, or money they
set aside for entertainment. Even though it’s become a cliché you should make
this decision before you arrive, because once you’re there it’s easy to talk
yourself into going over budget. It’s important to have a realistic look at
what you can afford to lose and still pay the bills. This amount will be the
key factor in making intelligent decisions once you’re inside the casino.
Emotional Budget: Maybe you
can afford a higher amount but know you’ll hate yourself in the morning when
you look in the mirror and see a gambling ‘ho. I call this your emotional
budget and, quite frankly, mine is rather low. A friend likes to tease me with
jokes (I hope he’s kidding) about being on the austerity plan and similar
quips aimed at making me feel tight-fisted. I may consider a ring I’ve been
eying, for example, and suddenly can’t bear to part with another dime. The
likelihood of this occurring increases when I’ve had a long string of pathetic
hands dealt and think this must be akin to self-flagellation. I understand
that everybody has a different tolerance to pain but when it comes to rapid
bankroll loss my endurance is quite low. You should give this careful thought
before playing. It’s always okay to stop before you reach you limit but never
go over your pre-determined max.
Choosing the Game: Now that you
know your bankroll for the session you’re ready to choose both the game as
well as the denomination (meaning nickels, quarters, dollars and so on). Make
sure you consider the entire cost of each wager instead of the denomination on
the display glass. Also check the pay schedules by pushing the “see pays”
button before deciding. If the expected return is low, for me it means less
than 99%, then look for a game with better odds. Free removable pay schedules
are available in my book, “The Video poker Edge”; these schedules will tell
you the theoretical return for the game you’re considering. Finally, avoid any
game you know nothing about. You can and should use tutorial software to
practice before going to a casino with your hard-earned money.
Expected Return (ER): This
means the theoretical results assuming you play computer perfect over an
extended period of time. Inexact to be sure in the short run just like every
single game inside the casino if certainty is your litmus test. If you’re
going to play smart, then the best you can to is determine the odds and find a
game where you have an edge or close to even money. One of the reasons video
poker is such a good choice is that you can know the probabilities in advance
of depositing money into the machine. Be aware that the pay schedule is on the
machine but the ER is not. You must match a table you bring with you with the
one on the machine to find the ER. That’s not possible for live poker because
there’s no precise
way to assess the skills of other players a key variable impacting your
odds. Likewise for slots that are even more unpredictable than poker players
since you have no way of seeing the chip inside the device you have selected.
Assuming you are able to play computer-perfect, and few can, you must be
playing a game with an ER over 100% or you are sure to lose over time. You can
and should add the cash back given by the slot club if you want a totally
accurate ER.
Skills: I’m surprised at the
number of people that ignore the impact of their playing ability on long term
results. For example, I am constantly hearing players complain about how “the
casino fixed the machines so that you can’t get four of a kind”. I firmly
believe this is not only untrue but also an unnecessary risk for casinos.
Simply watch the way people play and then compare it with the correct holds by
practicing on tutorial software. (The best, in my opinion, is computer-perfect
WinPoker by Dean Zamzow.) HYPERLINK "http://www.videopokerpractice.com"
www.videopokerpractice.com
You can explain the mathematical meaning of probability until you’re blue in
the face and it will not penetrate the gray matter of those who equate the
term with possibility. Probability refers to the precise likelihood of an
event occurring whereas possibility can apply to a highly improbable
occurrence, like winning the lottery.
Even more frustrating errors regarding a realistic ER for players are made by
casino management teams. I find it perplexing because they have the raw data
indicating the actual results for every single device, video poker and others,
on their casino floor. A simple graph of real results will quickly demonstrate
that the slots resemble the manufacturer’s figures getting even closer to
being exact over time. (I am sure of this because I have seen the data when
machines have been opened in both slot machine re-sale stores and on the
casino floor.) This is absolutely not the case with video poker machines. The
long term casino hold, unlike slots, is several percentage points higher than
the ER due to player errors. It annoys me personally because management’s
error causes them to panic and downgrade pay schedules far more than
necessary.
Objectives: Consider what
you want to accomplish before you choose a game. You may want a shot at a big
jackpot, inflated slot club points, more contest entries, a specific gift,
food, room or show comps or something else.
Low Volatility: If you want to
accumulate as many points as possible on your slot club card then select a
game with a lower risk of ruin. For video poker it means games where there is
a higher payout for frequent hands, like two pair, but not as many chances for
big jackpots. An example is 9/6 Jacks or Better (9/6 JOB) with a variance of
19.5. The downside is all quads (four of a kind hands) return 125 credits on a
five coin wager.
High Volatility: Maybe you’re
looking for the game with a higher ER and it’s 10/7 Double Bonus (10/7 DB, ER
100.1725%) for the casino where you’re playing. There’s a greater risk to your
bankroll because you must rely on infrequent hands to achieve the theoretical
return. For example, four aces returns 800 credits with a five coin bet. Just
be aware that you will only get even money for two pair, a frequent hand,
instead of double the bet like 9/6 JOB. The variance is 28.3, considerably
higher than 9/6 JOB, but much less than 9/6 Double Double Bonus (9/6 DDB),
which has a variance of 42.0.
Reasonable Options: You
should always make sure there’s something to play at casinos you frequent. To
me it translates to a game with an ER close to, equal to or over 100%.
Sometimes a game is slightly less, but it’s equal to or greater than even
money when you add the cash back into the equation. If your favorite casino
removes everything playable from their inventory then you should look around
for new haunts.
Quitting Time: This means when
either you’re out of bankroll or it’s no longer fun.
If you’re in a drawing, especially when you have many entries,
you may quit playing but don’t leave the casino until after the last drawing.
Some people want a mathematical answer for when it’s a good time to quit. Any
time the game has an ER less than or equal to 100% and you’re ahead is a good
time to end your session. If the ER, factoring in your skill as well as slot
card cash, is greater than 100% and you still have allocated bankroll left,
play on. I’m assuming you’re enjoying the game.
Bank of Linda: When my
nephew David ran out of money years ago, he’d say he needed to borrow from the
bank of Linda and I’d laugh and give him an interest free loan. In reality
borrowing from friends and family is a bad idea for all the obvious reasons.
Constant trips to the ATM (automatic teller machine) are even more painful,
since they’re a far cry from interest free. I have a friend who keeps her trip
bankroll in a safety deposit box, an excellent idea if you’re there for a few
days, and quits when the amount budgeted for a session or a day is reached.
Promotions: One exception to
changing to another activity or going to your room is if you have entered a
drawing. Most of the time it’s required that you are present for the drawing
and that you have run your card through the computer at one of the
kiosks on the day of the promotion. Once you’ve entered the drawing your name
can be called and you’ll have a limited amount of time to present yourself at
the designated location with your ID and slot club card in hand. If you leave
early Peter’s Principle guarantees that not only will your name be drawn but
people who are perfect strangers will gleefully let you know on your next
visit. I can report from experience that it’s a most unpleasant feeling when
you hear it the first time and gets worse as you’re repeatedly reminded of
your gaffe even a week after the event. So if you’re in the drawing but out of
cash I suggest you bite the bullet and remain until the promo is over.
Plan B: You
may be a casino captive because you came with others who aren’t ready to leave
or you’re staying for a few days. Some people get a vicarious thrill out of
watching others so they’re content just hanging around and cheering on their
friends. If that’s not your style then consider viable and less expensive
activities in the event you’re out of bankroll. Going to a movie, eating or
taking a long walk are better than losing more than you budgeted for the
session. Nowadays most casinos have many options from which to choose; if not,
bring a book, newspaper or trash magazine along with you.
Final Thoughts: In my mind I can
still recall Willy’s melodious tune in the distance about the price of poker.
Since we were playing table poker it was even better than video poker because
it represented opportunities after I got to see the first three out of
seven cards (seven-card stud). Too bad you can’t hand-pick your live poker
table mates either online or inside the casino. Just like it’s too bad you
can’t play multiple blackjack hands with a single deck and look at each hand
before going back to the first one for a hit or stand decision. (As I
mentioned elsewhere, in the old days you could conjure an “I’m lost”
expression, especially females, and get away with seeing all of your hands
before deciding. That’s a huge advantage with single deck BJ, even if you’re
using a primitive counting system without a side-count of aces.) This is the
real world, though, and you’ll have to work a little harder at keeping the
price of poker within your budget range. Video poker is an excellent game for
doing just that. You will have to make some decisions about both your real and
psychological budgets and take time to study the basics of your chosen game.
In addition, consider your equity in promotions as well as the best game
available for increasing your chances of winning. In the end, it’s always more
satisfying to get the pot of gold by a combination of skill and luck instead
of pushing a button in the blind and watching 15 identical symbols appear. I
will grant that the latter, though infrequent, isn’t too shabby either.
— Linda Boyd, a long-time table game player before turning to video poker,
writes for many gaming publications. Her book, The Video Poker Edge, includes
free removable pay schedules and her free strategy cards for the most popular
games. The 2010 Second Edition is now available at
amazon.com, bookstores or
www.squareonepublishers.com.
