April 2011

Video Poker: Bad Beats by Linda Boyd

I have some friends who rave about all the advantages of online poker. You know, things like remaining in your underwear, unshaven and swigging beer while socializing (sort of) and using your brain power. Not so appealing to me, but I can see where it would be the perfect leisure-time activity for some. One bud that is hooked on internet poker relayed a story describing how he lost with quads (four of a kind), an event that occurs about once in 400 hands; a very bad beat. In live poker it would happen even less often since you don’t play every hand dealt like you do in video poker. I could do the math for rough estimates on how often you’ll have a final hand of quads figuring the percentage of hands where you actually see all your cards (many in the muck), but it’s sufficient to say that quads in live poker are a rare occurrence. After the big adrenaline rush of getting all four cards of the same rank and then losing to a higher hand, in this case it was a straight flush on the river, must have been extremely frustrating. That’s why many casinos and sometimes online sites came up with bad beat jackpots. (Unfortunately, in my friend’s case there was no bad beat jackpot, so he ended up with nada.)

Although the rules vary as to what constitutes a ‘bad beat,’ the concept is the same — you’re paid for extremely bad luck. The reward, in fact, can be huge if you have a hand very high on the hierarchy, but still lose the pot. (In live poker you are the table’s hero as well since everybody gets a slice of the pie; yours is the biggest.) If you’re playing at a casino table you may have to contribute to the side jackpot to be eligible, but it’s much better than the aggravation of getting shut out with quads.

One of the good things people cite about video poker is that there are no possible bad beats. In other words, you know the winning combinations along with the payout before the cards are dealt. So does this mean there are no feelings of despair akin to bad beats when you play video poker? The way I see it, the close but no cigar feeling you get from poker bad beats can also happen in video poker. I’m not referring to leaving a machine and watching the next person sit at that device and get a royal either. In that case it’s highly unlikely that you would have gotten the same hand due to the way an RNG (random number generator) works. I’m talking about being dealt four to a royal or trips but coming up empty handed on the draw. This is especially annoying when it happens repeatedly over a relatively short period of time. We’ve all experienced the constant close calls in a session where we can’t seem to draw a thing.

If you’re going to gamble, then you must be prepared for an emotional roller coaster and some sad (at least to you) possibilities. It’s important, however, to consistently play the odds mathematically correct and make rational decisions to minimize the negative impact of close calls. If you’re psychologically unable to take some bad licks in stride, then you probably should end your session or quit gambling altogether.

Playing According to Zamzow
The adage ‘according to Hoyle’ means the final authority on card game rules and strategy just like ‘according to’ recognition for world records goes to Guinness, and for the accuracy of urban legends goes to Snopes. For video poker, the honor definitely goes to software pioneer Dean Zamzow. He’s the video poker guru who wrote WinPoker, the 100% accurate way to play individual video poker games mathematically perfect. Before Zamzow, experts were fiddling around with statistical data to develop game strategy, but it was inexact. Dean Zamzow wrote software for individual video poker games that changes when the pay schedule changes and indicates the correct holds for every possible dealt hand. (If you’re playing video poker you should be practicing at home using Zamzow’s tutorial software www.videopokerpractice.com.)

Others have software for video poker that is close to correct but chose to trade off difficulty of remembering quirky hands with overall ease of play. Some may also have correct software but Dean was first and the genius with the computer tutorial that is final authority on whether or not the hand was played correctly. (Also, be aware that there is a lot of junk on the market that allows you to have fun playing but has no tutorial function; some software has tutorial features but poor graphics.) So you may hear stories of long shot and even foolish video poker holds that resulted in a big win, but if it’s not according to Zamzow you’re simply not playing accurately. You absolutely can’t outrun the numbers. So over time playing incorrectly will cost you, and your return will be less than the maximum possible.

Does this mean you won’t have some painful bad beats from time-to-time? Unfortunately, no. Without a crystal ball there’s no way to predict future deals or draws based on past hands. Thisconcept is difficult to comprehend for mathematically challenged players because they want to talk about the results of a single hand instead of statistical odds.

The next sections will put things into perspective.

Possible Versus Probable
One of the most misunderstood concepts in video poker is possibility versus probability. The best holds in video poker are those that maximize your long run results based on the coins returned in relation to the odds of achieving the hand. This is a difficult concept for most players to comprehend, but the examples below will help put it in perspective.

The easiest way to understand video poker probabilities is to use an extreme example and then bring it down to closer calls. If you are dealt three aces, any six and any seven in 10/7 Double Bonus (10/7 DB), you would keep just the three aces, a correct and intuitive move. I could argue that you could possibly have kept any one of the aces and gotten a royal on the draw. You would correctly respond that it was too much of a long shot to consider. You have just made a good argument for not always going for the highest hand if the odds are so remote that you will lose more money over time by playing that way. You understand the probability is so stacked against drawing the royal that you’ll spend more money trying for it over time than keeping the three aces. The same is true in every instance when you must choose between two possible winning hand outcomes. The problem is many aren’t intuitive holds like the example because the odds versus the payout are closer. That’s why you play according to Zamzow!

Deviations for Non-Purists
Personally I’m from the school of thought that says play right and accept the consequences with a poker face. If you can’t do this, then gambling probably just isn’t for you.

Others look at it differently. For example, they may take a shot at playing above their means, say a $5 denomination when they normally play quarters. This means that each game costs $25 instead of $1.25. If they’re dealt a sure thing hand, a flush worth $150 in 9/6 JOB, but four to a royal, the correct play is hold four to the royal. Some argue the odds are so long and they rarely play this denomination so it makes sense to keep the flush. This is not a math argument and I think you should avoid playing above your means. You’ll probably feel some pain regardless of what you decide because if you keep the flush you’ll never know if you got beat out of $20,000, an extremely bad beat by playing with scared money. A similar scene happens when you play multi-hands and are dealt a winner, like a straight, with four to a royal. My view is go for the royal, but I can understand why some would keep the sure payout. Mathematically they made a bad decision.

Getting Beat Up
If you’re playing correctly you may still be taking a major drubbing. Just because you’re supposed to get four-of-a-kind (quads) around once every 400 hands and you’ve played several times that number of hands doesn’t mean you’re due. Before the deal, your odds never change regardless of whether you’ve been winning or losing. In a sense the overall picture of going through several royal cycles (the odds of getting a royal are approximately one in 40,000) or quad cycles (around once every 400 hands) and coming up blank are like bad beat poker hands. Mathematically it shouldn’t happen but it can and will if you play long enough. That’s because the long run refers to many hands, with experts arguing as to a good number to place on it. Several royal cycles for sure and the closer to infinite, assuming correct play, the closer actual results will resemble short-term results. If you continue to play accurately and the theoretical expectation is positive there is absolutely no logical math reason to quit. Of course, that’s a lot of ifs.

Mistakes
Gambling is definitely an emotional activity regardless of your chosen form. If you’re getting a series of bad beats, say an inordinate amount of trips (three-of-a-kinds) without converting into quads or dealt four-flushes (four to a flush) and no flushes after the draw, you may become frustrated. That’s when you can get sloppy and fail to hold all the cards you intended to, or not even see all the cards and make hold mistakes. That’s a good signal to stop playing, table games or video poker, and lick your wounds.

Bankroll
Sometimes you simply run out of the money you set aside for the session even though you may have played far fewer hands than you expected. I’m referring to risk of ruin tables that give you an idea of how many betting units you should be able to play with a given amount of money and pay schedule. If you lose all the money you wanted to risk for a session, especially if the video poker choice has an expected return less than 100%, then it’s potentially too painful to continue.

Promotion Equity
Sometimes it’s worth giving a casino a significant amount of business during a promotion. That’s because they usually have virtual entries sorted by a computer and the number you earn is based on the amount of play you give them. You can’t know your exact odds since there are too many variables, like the number of other players and the number of entries they have. You can, however, have a ballpark idea, indicating whether this promotion is worth you spending a lot of time playing in this casino. You should look at the value of the prizes to you (cash is the best for most) as well as the number of winners. I try to avoid drawings where there are only a few winners.

Be There or Be Square
Before investing a lot of time going for entry tickets get a copy of the contest flyer. Make sure the drawing is at a time and on a date where you can be there. It’s a bad feeling when you invest a lot of energy and money in acquiring tickets only to discover that you can’t possibly be present, a typical requirement.

Jumped In
I remember one of my former students coming to school looking like he was badly beat up. I said, “Mark, what happened?” Silence. Other students said he was ‘jumped in’ last night. They explained that when you join a gang, the other members beat you up as part of an initiation ritual. This sent shivers down my spine and left a lasting but very sad impression.

It comes to mind, however, when I think of people spending far more than it’s worth or more than they can afford, to gain entries for a promotion or to earn a gift. Unless the ‘present’ is a new car or something of similar value I would say play as you would normally and if you have enough for the gift, fine; if not, that’s fine as well.

If the purpose of your play is to earn entries for a drawing, the same rule of thumb applies as for the gift. It depends on the amount of cash and the number of prizes awarded. Also, do you notice a huge crowd during every drawing but only a few names? If so, don’t spend more than you would normally.

I really have known players who ended up with a thousand dollar turkey (sometimes they make the comment) and feel like they got a major drubbing from the casino.

Volatility
If you decide you have a good chance of winning and want to go for it, select a game with low volatility over a game with a similar theoretical return and a high risk. That’s because you’ll earn more entry tickets since you’ll be able to hang in there longer. These are games with fewer big jackpots, but pay more for lower ranking hands like two pair. An example is 9/6 Jacks or Better (9/6 JOB), which pays double your wager for two pair instead of 9/6 Double Bonus (9/6 DB), paying even money for two pair.

For those who play slots, you may correctly assume the theo (casino’s theoretical edge) is higher therefore you’re sure to earn more entries. Think again for many options with bonus rounds. You’re receiving entries based on coin-in (amount of money you run through the device) and no money is deposited during bonus rounds.

Over Your Head
Even if it’s an excellent promotion and you have a lot of equity, meaning entries, you have to decide when you’re going to stop. There is never a guarantee that your name will be drawn and the disappointment will be more if you spend more than you can afford. In fact, if you play like a banshee and have many virtual entries in a contest, but still lose to somebody who yells, “I can’t believe it, only 2 entries,” you’ll feel beat up. That’s why it’s important to make reasonable decisions about when to quit playing. No promotion is worth spending more than you can afford. I like to quote American Casino Guide author, Steve Bourie from one of our video poker podcasts to make this point. Steve says, “When I get home I can tell my wife, I lost a lot of money, but don’t worry—it was an excellent play.” When you’ve reached your bankroll limit you should simply stop depositing money in the beast and go with the entries, cash back, points and other perks you have earned.
Final Thoughts
Years ago my casino game was poker — 5 or 7-card stud or Hold’em. There was no such thing as bad beat jackpots either. If you lost with a big hand you just had to live with it. There was some mitigation if you chose to play during slow times like weekday mornings or afternoons. If you chose the right casino you’d get a posted bonus for designated high hands, like quads. Best of all it wasn’t necessary to contribute to a side pot to be eligible. Honestly, these hands are so infrequent that the casino can well afford to offer incentives without charging extra or increasing the rake. To be fair, the bonus amounts were significantly less than typical bad beat jackpots that grow until they’re hit. I was still more than happy with the money awarded, say $400, on the rare occasion that I won it.

With video poker there are times when you must throw away a winning hand to go for specific higher hands. People who throw out adages, like ‘never throw away a winner’ are just plain wrong as far as the math goes. These are the same folks who play ‘no bust’ blackjack (they never take a hit that can bust them regardless of the dealers up card or the count), another sure long-run loser. The trick with video poker is knowing when to toss a winner and when to make other decisions that require patience and risk.

I sort of cringe when I hear people brag about how they had a dealt straight but four to the royal and went for the royal. They draw the royal and say, “You know most people would have kept the straight, but I went for it.” Honestly, I can’t imagine a game that pays enough for a straight where anybody would keep it instead of going for the royal. Please keep dealing me four to a royal along with a straight and I will continue to risk my sure-thing coins. A little quick math on the side for 9/6 JOB is a dealt straight returns 20 coins and a royal returns 4000 coins. Let’s see, 47 X 20 = 940; not even close to 4,000.

Certainly you could lose in the short run by deciding to rack up points for equity in a promotion or toss a dealt winner, but you’re there to play smart. You have to accept bad beats philosophically in all casino games or find another leisure-time activity.

— Linda Boyd, a long-time table game player before turning to video poker, writes for many gaming publications. Her book, The Video Poker Edge, includes free removable pay schedules and her free strategy cards for the most popular games. The 2010 Second Edition is now available at amazon.com, bookstores or www.squareonepublishers.com. Kindle edition available.