MWGT - Video Poker

Articles - Video Poker

It's rare that I get to live out my childhood super-hero fantasies, but an e-mail I recently received gave me the opportunity to come to the rescue of a video poker player. I knew this was no ordinary e-mail message: Urgent Response Requested. The e-mail equivalent of a call to 911.
Dear Slot Expert,
My husband has been corresponding with you regarding 10/7 Double Bonus machines. He is in Atlantic City now and the one 10/7 machine there has been in use for two days. There is a 9/7 Double Bonus machine. Can you please let me know ASAP if this machine is a good alternative and what its percentages are? Thank you.
J.C.
I've been caught in the same situation many times. A casino has a limited number of the machine I want to play and they're in use when I want to play. J.C.'s husband had the choice of playing a machine that pays back more than 100% in the long run or a machine that pays back less than 100%.
Video poker pros scoff at the idea of playing any paytable that pays less than 100%, unless slot club cashback or another promotion pushes the expectation above 100%. For pros, positive expectation is a must. When the choice is between a negative expectation, even a small negative expectation, and not playing, the pro chooses to not play.
For the recreational player, on the other hand, positive expectation isn't a necessity, just an added bonus when it is available. Recreational players do not depend on video poker winnings for their livelihoods. Recreational players do not need to be as fanatical about positive expectation as pros do.
According to Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker, the payback on 10/7 Double Bonus is 100.2% and the payback on 9/7 Double Bonus is 99.1%. The 9/7 Double Bonus paytable is not a positive expectation paytable, but it's still one of the better video poker options available. I told J.C. to tell her husband to play the 10/7 machine if it was available, but otherwise to have a blast playing the 9/7 machine. In the short run, the loss of a percentage point in payback doesn't make much of a difference.
In the long run, the lower payback on the 9/7 machine means that the 9/7 player will show a loss. I calculated the confidence intervals for the two games to see how long it would take for the lower payback to have a significant effect on the amount of money a player won. A confidence interval is a statistical calculation that is used in sampling. We can apply it to video poker to find the range that we expect a player's actual payback to fall in after a certain number of hands. For example, I can be 90% sure that a 9/6 Jacks or Better player's actual payback will be between 98.8% and 100.3% after 1,000,000 hands. The level of confidence for all of the intervals in this article is 90% - that is, I'm 90% sure that the player's payback will fall in the interval specified.
After 1,000 hands, the 10/7 player's payback is between 73.4% and 128.9%. The 9/7 player's payback is 71.1% to 127.1%. There's a lot of overlap in those intervals. It takes more hands for the 10/7 paytable to prove its superiority.
After 10,000 hands, the 10/7 player's payback is between 92.4% and 110%. The 9/7 player's range is 90.3% and 107.9%. The 10/7 machine needs still more hands to pull away from the 9/7 machine.
The intervals do not overlap at all until the two players play about 1,000,000 hands. The range for the 10/7 player is 100.3% to 102.1% and for the 9/7 player it's 98.2% to 99.9%. After 1,000,000 hands, the 10/7 player has pulled ahead of the 9/7 player.
Coincidentally, 1,000,000 hands is a magical number of hands for both of these paytables. We can consider 1,000,000 hands to be the long run for both 10/7 Double Bonus and 9/7 Double Bonus. At this point, almost all of the 10/7 players show a profit and almost all of the 9/7 players show a loss.
The confidence interval formula assumes the results are normally distributed - and that assumption doesn't hold true when you play fewer than 1,000,000 hands. We can still use the confidence intervals for comparisons and estimates.
I don't know how much time J.C.'s husband had left in Atlantic City, but I suspect he didn't have time to play 1,000,000 hands. He probably played between 1,000 and 10,000 hands and that's not enough hands for the short-pay paytable to do much damage to his bankroll.
This crisis averted, I put my mask, super-hero's cape, and statistical calculator back in my super-hero's secret closet to await the next emergency. Like Batman watches the skies for the bat silhouette projected from a searchlight, I'll be scanning the skies for the silhouette of a royal flush in diamonds to alert me to the next video poker emergency. (If it's easier for you, just send an e-mail to slotexpert@comcast.net).
John Robison is an expert video poker player and author of The Slot Experts Guide to Playing Slots, $6.95, by Huntington Press (800) 244-2224. He is the managing editor of the gaming pages at rgtgaming.com. Email: slotexpert@comcast.net.

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Dealer's Hole Card, Blackjack Percentages, Video Poker Odds by John Grochowski

Q: Recently, the casino near me initiated a new blackjack policy where the dealer does not look at the hole card when showing a 10-value card. Does it add to the house advantage?
A: Casinos that fear dealers are tipping cards to players sometimes will have the dealer forgo checking under 10-value cards to see if he or she has blackjack. This adds nothing to the house edge on the game as long as players who double down or split pairs lose only one bet if the dealer has an ace down for a blackjack. If the house takes both bets in such situations, then the house edge is increased. I've never seen an American casino that takes both bets on doubles and splits when the dealer has blackjack. In some European casinos and shipboard casinos run by overseas companies, the dealer doesn't even take a hole card. The dealer doesn't get a second card until all player decisions are made. There's no way to check for blackjack if the dealer has an ace or 10 up. The house takes both bets if the player splits or doubles and the dealer's second card completes a blackjack. That's ugly.
Q. I have a blackjack theory. It starts off with 312 cards in six-decks. Of these 312 cards, there are 96 10-values and 24 cards of each denomination, ace through 9. If a player's hand is 12, there are 96 cards or 31% that will bust the hand. With 13, 120 cards or 39% are busts, while 14 busts with 140 cards (46%); 15 busts with 168 cards (54%); 16 busts with 192 cards (61%), and 17 busts with 216 cards (70%).
A. First, the number of cards that will bust a given hand varies slightly depending on the composition of the hand. If your 12 consists of 9-3, 8-4, 7-5 or 6-6, then there are 96 cards that will bust the hand. If your 12 consists of 10-2, then there are only 95, since you already have one in hand. And if your 12 is soft, consisting of ace-ace, no cards will bust it.
These numbers and much more are already accounted for in basic strategy. If you learn basic strategy, you narrow the house edge in a six-deck game to about a half-percent, depending on house rules. Any good book on blackjack will include a chapter on basic strategy. That includes books by several Midwest Gaming & Travel regulars: Frank Scoblete's Best Blackjack, Henry Tamburin's Blackjack: Take the Money and Run, and Fred Renzey's Blackjack Bluebook. My own Casino Answer Book includes quizzes on basic strategy for hard totals, soft totals and for splitting pairs.
Q. I would like to know why a straight flush, which is listed higher than any four of a kind, only pays at 250 to 1 in most if not all, video poker games.
A. Video poker games are not designed to reflect the true odds of the game. They are designed to make the games playable and fun. If straight flushes paid as much as the odds say, the game designers would have to take something away elsewhere on the paytable. They'd have to reduce the payoff on a royal flush, meaning the top jackpot wouldn't be as attractive, or they'd have to reduce payoffs lower on the paytable, which means you wouldn't get as much on more common hands, and you'd lose your money faster during any session when the bigger hands weren't coming.
Is it keeping with the odds of draw poker that in Double Bonus Poker, for instance, every four of a kind pays at least 250 coins - the same as a straight flush - even though four of a kind is a 1-in-420 shot and a straight flush is a 1-in-9,000 shot? No, it's not, but it's more fun for the players to have a chance at the bigger payoff on the more common hand.
Q. I've had numerous occurrences in video poker when I've drawn one card to a straight, or full house, I've had the same identical card returned to me on the draw that I had just discarded. Can you explain this?
A. By "same identical card," I'm assuming the draw is the same denomination of card in a different suit. If it's the same suit and denomination, there's something wrong with the program and the game should be taken out of service until the computer chip is changed.
The phenomenon referred to is something every video poker player has experienced. There are streaks when it seems every time we're making a one-card draw for a straight or full house, we get the same denomination card and fail to improve the hand. The operative word is "seems." I've found there's a little selective memory at work, and a few instances of what seems to be an odd occurrence will cause us to take note every time it happens, while the times it doesn't happen don't stick in our memories. By random chance, when we make a one-card draw we should receive a card of the same denomination three times per 47 trials, or a little more often than one in 16 hands. It's well within random chance that this could happen several times in a row. But if you keep track of what happens over a long period or in several sessions, keeping track of every one-card draw, the effect disappears.
John Grochowski is the author of The Casino Answer Book, The Slot Machine Answer Book, The Video Poker Answer Book and the Craps Answer Book, available through Bonus Books, Inc. at (800) 225-3775.

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Video Poker Resources by John Robison

Back in the Stone Age of video poker analysis, the early 1990s, when I first became serious about the game, video poker players had few resources to help them make more money playing this game. There were a handful of books, many video poker computer games, but only two programs that could analyze new pay tables; one newsletter; and a few people selling strategy cards.
Today's video poker players, have a wealth of information available to them. I've received a number of e-mails asking for more information and more recommendations, so I thought I'd tell you about some resources available to you.
BOOKS
The late Lenny Frome's books introduced many of us to video poker analysis and his books remain required reading today. The timeless Video Poker: America's National Game of Chance is a collection of many of the articles he wrote. I used to bring a copy of Lenny's Winning Strategies for Video Poker with me when I played video poker. It has strategies for the classic video poker pay tables you'll run into in the casino. Written a number of years ago, it doesn't have strategies for new pay tables, but that's not much of a liability because the long-term paybacks on most of the new pay tables are not as high as those on the older pay tables.
I also recommend Frank Scoblete's Victory at Video Poker. Frank presents his strategies in words rather than charts. Many players find Frank's word-oriented strategies easier to follow than charts used by other authors.
Another good book is John Grochowski's Video Poker Answer Book, where he answers over 300 video poker questions. For people who want to learn all the nuances of playing their favorite pay tables, Bob Dancer has a series of reports covering 9/6 Jacks or Better, Full Pay Deuces Wild (rarely found outside Nevada), and 10/7 Double Bonus.
NEWSLETTERS
If you enjoy Skip Hughes' irreverent style, you'll love his Video Poker Player newsletter, available via PDF file only. The granddaddy of video poker newsletters is Dan Paymar's Video Poker Times, published bimonthly since 1993. It's also the only printed newsletter devoted entirely to video poker. Both newsletters have a decided Vegas slant, but both contain enough general information to make them worthwhile.
STRATEGY CARDS
I remember playing video poker in the Trump Plaza casino in Atlantic City years ago. I pulled out Lenny's book to check a hand I wasn't sure how to play. A gentleman next to me showed me a strategy card he had typed and laminated. Today you can buy strategy cards from a number of sources. I often use the ones from Dan Paymar. They're small enough to fit in a shirt pocket or wallet and I like the way Dan presents his strategies. Although I haven't seen them, Jazbo Burns also sells strategy cards and they should be very good. Skip Hughes, in addition, has said that he will resume selling his strategy cards sometime in the future. And no one beats Bob Dancer for the amount of information he crams onto the cards he developed along with Liam Daily.
PC PROGRAMS
The most comprehensive program available today is Bob Dancer Presents WinPoker. It not only simulates playing a real video poker machine, it also warns you when you don't hold the right cards. You can use it to track your play and find out how many mistakes you made, and analyze a hand to find out which cards to hold. WinPoker can calculate the long-term payback of almost any video poker pay table.
The only thing WinPoker doesn't do is create strategies for video poker paytables. For that I use Tomski's Video Poker Strategy Master (VPSM). Two other programs that have been around for a while that also create strategies are Panamint Software's VP Tutor and Sage Software's Sage Video Poker. VPSM is strictly a strategy creator; VP Tutor and Sage Video Poker combine a video poker simulator with a strategy creator. VP Tutor was the original program video poker analysts used to create strategies and Bob Dancer used it in developing the strategies in his reports. Although I haven't used Sage Video Poker, I have been very happy with Sage Software's blackjack program.
WHERE TO BUY
Most of the books and products listed here are from Huntington Press at www.greatstuff4gamblers.com. The website for Video Poker Player is www.vpplayer.com. Dan Paymar's Video Poker Times and strategy cards are available at www.vegasplayer.com/vpinfo/video-poker.html. Jazbo Burns' products are available from his website, www.jazbo.com. Sage Software's website is www.s-a-g-e.com.
John Robison is an expert video poker player and author of The Slot Experts Guide to Playing Slots, $6.95, by Huntington Press (800) 244-2224. He is the managing editor of the gaming pages at rgtgaminga.com.

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The Magic Words In Video Poker by: John Grochowski

Good video poker and a good slot club go hand in hand. In fact, say “100% return’’ and “1% cash back’’ to a video poker player, and you’ve said the magic words. So when I was alerted to just such a combination at Jumer’s Casino Rock Island in the Quad Cities area of northwest Illinois, presto! I was on my way to check it out.
Sure enough, near the table games pit on the first of three gaming decks, there sits a five-machine carousel complete with a sign promoting video poker with a “Certified 100% Return.’’ All games in the carousel are 25¢ single-hand games, all full-pay 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker, in which full houses pay 10-for-1, flushes pay 7-for-1 and straights pay 5-for-1. With expert play, 10-7 Double Bonus brings a 100.17% return. Expert strategy in Double Bonus is tricky, and few players really attain 100% payback. But even so, the game is an attraction.
And the slot club? That’s magic, too. Slide your club card into the reader at the slot or video poker machines, and a penny is added to the meter for every dollar you play. That’s a full 1% in same-day cash back, one of the highest paybacks in the country. You don’t get a countdown to points. And at the same time you’re earning the cash back, you’re also earning buffet comps and vouchers that can be used with merchants around the Rock Island area.
Rock Island’s combination is a rare treat, but other Midwestern casinos offer a chance for a little video poker/comp wizardry. Check out this list of casinos for a chance to make the house edge disappear.
ILLINOIS
At Empress Casino in Joliet, dollar 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker machines add a progressive jackpot onto the royal flush payoff. That means the theoretical payback percentage with expert play rises above the 100.17% on the basic game as the jackpot rises. Naturally, the game has been a big draw for Empress. And slot director Tammy Couchman has been staunch in her support for the high-paying game, sometimes under duress from executives who have wanted to replace it. But players flock to the machines, which have been on the Empress floor since 1995.
Empress also has 9-6 Jacks or Better, a 99.5% game with expert play, and Not So Ugly Deuces Wild, a 99.7% game with expert play, on dollar Triple Play Poker machines. Jacks or Better was one of the first video poker games, and it’s one of the most even-tempered. It pays 2-for-1 on common two-pair hands instead of the 1-for-1 payoffs on Double Bonus, Double Double Bonus, All-American and other variations. That leaves a game that’s much less volatile. Wins aren’t often as big as on Double Bonus, but losses aren’t as fast and frequent, either. The Deuces Wild version, nicknamed “Not So Ugly” by players, doesn’t actually say that on the machine glass. It just says Deuces Wild, but can be recognized by a paytable that enhances five of a kind payoffs to 16-for-1 and straight flushes to 10-for-1, while paying 4-for-1 on both four of a kind and flushes, and upping the flush payoff to 3-for-1. It’s easily the best Deuces version available in the Midwest.
Empress’ slot club returns only .125% in cash back to video poker players, but Empress is very active in mailing bonus cash vouchers to slot club members.
Harrah’s, also in Joliet, has $1 progressive Double Bonus Poker as one of its centerpiece games, too, but with a reduced 9-7-5 paytable. That reduces the return on the basic game to 99.1%, but the progressive moves up fast with 1% of coins played added to the jackpot. It’s not unusual to see royal flushes worth more than $10,000 instead of the standard $4,000.
Cash back in Harrah’s Total Rewards program comes through direct mail vouchers instead of as redeemed points on the spot, so it’s difficult to pin down a cash back percentage.
In Alton, near St. Louis, the Alton Belle also has a good $1 progressive game, but it’s not Double Bonus. Alton players go for progressive 9-6 Jacks or Better, and get .25% cash back in the slot club.
MISSOURI
Video poker is an acquired taste. New players tend to flock to the slots, and only with experience do some break away to try the higher-paying video poker games. But in Missouri, players had to acquire the taste from the start. When Missouri casinos first opened, only “games of skill” were permitted. Video poker was deemed a game of skill, and slot machines were not. Customers learned to play video poker before they had an opportunity to play the slots. That has left Missouri with a video poker tradition to uphold.
In Kansas City, Argosy is upholding the tradition nicely with 9-6 Jacks or Better on quarter, $1 and $5 machines. Check out the 25¢ multiple-game machines, and you’ll also find full-pay Pick ‘Em Poker, a 99.9% game with expert play, and a fairly easy game to learn. Upon making a bet, the player sees four cards. The two on the left will remain part of the final five-card hands, but the other two cards are the tops of three-card stacks. The player chooses one of the stacks to complete the hand.
Argosy also has 25¢ All-American Poker, potentially the highest-paying game in the Midwest with a 100.7% return with expert play. What marks All-American Poker is an 8-for-1 return that is the same on full houses, flushes and straights. Add into all that a .25% cash-back rate, with frequent mid-week triple points days, and the video poker is magical here, too.
Isle of Capri has 9-6 Jacks or Better for 25¢, 50¢ and dollar players, along with .25% cash back. Players do even better early in the day, with double points until 6 p.m.
Harrah’s doesn’t have the full-pay Jacks or Better games, but does have both All-American and Pick ‘Em in both 25¢ and $1 denominations.
Ameristar is strong on dollar Triple Play Poker machines, with both 9-6 Jacks or Better and Not So Ugly Deuces. For quarter players, there’s full-pay Pick ‘Em. The slot club offers .25% cash back.
Across the state in St. Louis, the strongest video poker casino is the President. Two multiple-game machines include 10-7-5 Double Bonus Poker. But the real attraction is All-American Poker, in both nickel and quarter denominations. A 100.7% video poker game on a nickel machine is a rare treat. The cash-back rate is 0.2%.
INDIANA
From it’s opening in 1996 until late in 2000, Majestic Star in Gary had one of the weakest video poker selections around. A big change in marketing strategy has totally turned that around, and now Majestic Star has one of the best video poker selections in the Midwest.
For starters, there’s basic 9-6 Jacks or Better. Dollar players will find it on single-hand, multiple-game machines, as well as three-hand Triple Play Poker. Quarter players also will find it on single-hand multiple-game units. But the real surprise is the easy availability of that full-pay table to nickel players, with 9-6 Jacks or Better on five-cent Triple Play/Five Play and Fifty Play machines; and you can play Fifty Play one hand at a time.
Majestic also has 9-6 Bonus Poker Deluxe, a 99.6% game with expert play and a step up from the 8-6 Bonus Deluxe version that’s usually regarded as full-pay. Add in Not So Ugly Deuces on the dollar Triple Plays, and you have a really strong selection. The slot club sends cash back through direct mail vouchers, but it’s a particularly generous program with a .67% return. Other comps also are strong here.
Trump Casino, which shares a land-based pavilion with Majestic Star in Gary, is similarly generous on the club. Cash back through direct-mail vouchers is .67%, and meals and other comps also are very strong. The selection of near-100% video poker isn’t as wide ranging as it is across the hall, but Trump is a quarter Triple Play player’s delight. The 25¢ three-hand games have both 9-6 Jacks or Better and Not So Ugly Deuces. The good games are along a back wall in a bank of machines that are strictly Triple Play. The Triple Play/Five Play games along the side wall to the left have reduced paytables.
Farther south in Elizabeth, Caesars has a selection that rivals Majestic Star’s. For a basic game, there’s 9-6 Jacks or Better for both quarter and dollar players. For a game with a difference, there’s 25¢ and $1 Pick ‘Em Poker. For players who like to hunt the big four-of-a-kind bonuses, there’s 9-7-6 Double Bonus Poker, again in both quarter and dollar denominations. And for those who love wild cards, Not So Ugly Deuces is available for both quarter and dollar players. In the slot club, the cash-back rate comes to .25%.
Grand Victoria in Rising Sun targets high-denomination players. Triple Play Poker machines in both $1 and $5 denominations — that’s a $75 per hand max bet on $5 Triple Plays, if you’re keeping track — include 9-6 Jacks or Better. Dollar players also can play Not So Ugly Deuces Wild. The slot club gives .33% in cash back.
WISCONSIN
Full-pay video poker thrives best where casinos are close and competitive. That’s not the situation in Wisconsin, with its far-flung operations. Still, there are a few opportunities for video poker aficionados.
Ho-Chunk in Baraboo and Oneida in Green Bay both have 9-6 Jacks or Better in quarter Triple Play games. Ho-Chunk also has 9-6 Jacks or Better in a rare two-coin, instead of five-coin, progressive. Cash back amounts to .1% of play at Ho-Chunk, and .2% at Oneida.
Lake of the Torches in Lac du Flambeau has dollar 9-6 Jacks or Better, but no cash back on the slot club. St. Croix in Turtle Lake also has dollar 9-6 Jacks or Better, with .33% slot club return.
MICHIGAN
Through most of Michigan, the video poker situation is much like Wisconsin. Full-pay games are few and far between, although Victories Casino in Petoskey has 9-6 Jacks or Better on dollar Triple Play machines. Alas, there is no slot club to enhance the return. But the opening of casinos in Detroit has brought a variety of full-pay games. The biggest selection is at Greektown, where there are opportunities for nickel, quarter, 50¢, $1, $5 and $25 players.
It starts with 9-6 Jacks or Better, available to nickel players on Ten Play Poker machines and to quarter and dollar players on Triple Play Poker. Single-hand 9-6 Jacks games are on the floor for $5 players.
Pick ‘Em is here, too, in both the 25¢ and $1 denominations. The nickel Ten Play machines that have 9-6 Jacks or Better also have Not So Ugly Deuces. That Deuces game also is available on 50¢ and dollar Triple Play machines. And for the true video poker high roller, there are $25 Not So Ugly Deuces machines. It’s all tied up with .33% cash back on the slot club.
Pick ‘Em Poker is the best game at MGM Grand, and there’s quite a lot of it. Pick ‘Em players have their choice of 25¢, 50¢ and $1 machines, with a .22% return on the slot club. In fact, Detroit seems to be a strong Pick ‘Em market. Not only is the game found there, but cross the river into Ontario, and you’ll find it in 25¢, 50¢, $1 and $5 denominations, in Canadian money, at Casino Windsor.
Back in Detroit at Motor City, the slot club cash back is even stronger at .5%. That leaves an opportunity for 9-6 Jacks or Better players. The game is offered on 25¢ Triple Play machines and 50¢ single-hand games. Add the .5% slot club return to the 99.5% theoretical return on the game, and expert play brings the total return to 100% in the long run.
Most players will get less, but just to have the opportunity for a 100% game, well, that’s magic.
If you can add to the list, please let me know. If you find a good video poker game and slot club return in the Midwest, please send details to: Midwest Gaming and Travel, 409 Tenth Street S.E., Waseca, MN 56093, or click here to send us an email: editor@midwestgamingandtravel.com
John Grochowski is Midwest Gaming & Travel’s Casino Q&A columnist, syndicated gaming columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times and the author of the Casino Answer Book, the Slot Machine Answer Book and the Video Poker Answer Book.

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It Usually Doesn't Happen This Way by John Robison Byron

Tidwell is one of the most amazing men I’ve met. He’s an entertainer, producer, writer, actor, and member of all the entertainment guilds that we only read about when there is a strike threat in Hollywood. I met Byron when he was the master of ceremonies for tournaments and other events at the Desert Inn in Las Vegas before it closed.
Although he never had a script, Byron was never at a loss for words. Other announcers sometimes fumfered around for something to say, but Byron was always smooth, as if everything he was going to say was already written out for him. When he was announcing a slot tournament, he knew how to get the players pumped up at the start of the session and re-energized and hitting the spin button with vigor at the end of the session. But the talent that Byron had that amazed all of the Desert Inn regulars was his photographic memory. He knew all the players’ names after everyone had played one session in a tournament. Byron recently told me this story about his attempt to prove a point about gambling to a friend. “My friend from Seattle was in town for a meeting. He works at a software firm there. You’d probably like him. He’s a computer nerd like you.”
“Uh, thanks … I think,” I said. “No, no, it was a compliment,” he said. “Now, it was my friend’s last night in town and I was going to drop him off at the airport. We had a few hours to kill before his flight, so I took him to Mandalay Bay for dinner. It was just after 5 p.m., so we had time to walk around the casino before our reservations at 6.
“My friend is scared to gamble. He won’t even drop a nickel in a slot machine and he was even a little bit nervous just walking around Mandalay Bay. I wanted to show him that gambling is a legitimate form of entertainment, but also that he was right to be cautious. It’s possible to lose a lot of money quickly in a casino.
“I decided to show him how quickly I could lose $5 playing a quarter video poker machine. I thought video poker was the perfect example because the game combines both luck and skill. I put a five-dollar bill in the bill acceptor of a Double Double Bonus machine.”
“Not a good paytable,” I interrupted. “You forgot my rule — the longer the name, the worse the game.” “It was only five bucks, John. I told my friend that five dollars was enough to play four hands and that even if I won a hand or two, the winnings would probably be small. The five dollars would be gone in about a minute. My first hand was a bust. So were my second and third hands. ‘It doesn’t usually happen this way,’ I told him.”
“That’s right,” I interrupted again. “You have about a 45% chance of getting a winning hand on most video poker machines. It happens, but it’s unusual to get four losing hands in a row. The probability is 0.45 times itself four times. I can’t do that in my head, but 0.45 is about one-half, which is one over two, and I can multiply two times itself four times in my head.” Byron replied, “See what I mean? Computer nerd.”
“Yeah, I guess you’re right,” I said. “Two times itself four times is 16, and six times 16 is almost 100, so about 6% of your groupings of four-hands will consist of four losing hands.”
“Obviously, John, you’re not playing with my luck. Anyway, I hit the Bet Max button to start the fourth hand. The machine dealt a pair of aces. ‘This is great,’ I told my friend. ‘We didn’t win, but we didn’t lose. A pair of aces is a push, a return of our bet. At least, we’ll get to play this buck and a quarter again.’
“I held the two aces and pressed the Draw button. I received the other two aces and a deuce kicker to win 2,000 quarters. The machine locked up, went into hand pay mode, and rang its buzzer. Between the buzzer and the flashing ‘call attendant’ message in the middle of the screen, my friend was convinced I had cheated the machine. ‘I didn’t cheat,’ I told him. ‘I won more coins than the machine pays on its own, so I have to wait for someone to come pay me by hand.’
He said, 'and that’s when they discover that you cheated?’ I reassured him that my win was a result of my video poker skill and not cheating. I also told him that it doesn’t usually happen this way. Four aces with the kicker is a very rare hand. Five dollars doesn’t usually last very long on a quarter video poker machine. While I was waiting to be paid, he put 10 dollars into a machine. He hit a couple of two pairs and a full house before he ran out of credits. He had fun, which was my point. Later, when I took him to the airport, I pointed to the machines in the waiting area and said, ‘Last chance until you come back.’
“He looked at me with computer-nerd seriousness and said, ‘Hey, even I know better than to play the machines at the airport.”
John Robison is an expert video poker player. He is also the Managing Editor of Frank Scoblete’s Gaming Pages at RGT Online: www.frankscoblete.com or www.rgtgaming.com

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