Articles - Black Jack

A reader's question about what is the correct playing strategy for video blackjack prompted me to write about the different types of video blackjack games that are available and how smart players often take advantage of these games. 

One type of video blackjack game is housed in a machine that looks like a slot machine. Blackjack is usually just one of several games available on this machine (usually video keno, slots and different video poker games are included). This video blackjack game uses a random number generator to deal the cards (similar to video poker). Usually one deck of cards is programmed in the machine and each card has equal probability of being selected on the deal. The casino fixes its advantage by the mix of playing rules (similar to the traditional blackjack table game). The worse the rules are, the higher the casino's edge. Video blackjack machines that offer 25¢ minimum bets attract players who don't have the bankroll for the table version, or are learning and want to play for small stakes. 

The major problem you'll find with the rules on video blackjack machines is that player blackjacks are paid at even money rather than 3 to 2 and usually doubling is restricted to only 10 and 11. However, sometimes the rules are quite good as was the case recently at a video blackjack machine at Bellagio in Las Vegas. It was hit hard by skilled players before it was shut down. Here's what happened. 

There was a bank of machines that offered video blackjack, where at the quarter denomination, blackjacks paid even money. However, at $1 to $5, blackjacks were paid at 3 to 2 (you could bet up to 20 credits per round or $100). The rules were single deck, double down only on 10 and 11, late surrender, a six-card hand was an automatic winner, no double after pair splitting, dealer hits soft 17, and no resplit of pairs. Based on these rules a player had about a 99.7% expected return. More importantly, when you used your slot club card, you racked up a lot of slot points quickly and the cash back was worth 0.33% times your action (giving the player an overall return slightly over 100%). Just as important, the skilled players knew that the variance (or short-term risk) for the blackjack game was a lot lower than a typical jacks-or-better video poker game. The video poker pros were able to put a ton of money through the machines with little risk while racking up a lot of points on their players cards. Many players were racking up $100 to $300K of action on these machines, getting comped meals in restaurants, plus picking up $400 (or more) in cash back. It was a sweet deal, but it only lasted a short time before the folks at Bellagio pulled the plug on the game.

Another video blackjack game is called Blackjack Blitz. It consists of five or six player stations arranged in a horseshoe with the "dealer" video screen in the middle facing the players. The cards are dealt to each player's screen. Players push buttons to signal if they want to stand, hit, double, etc. 

Last year the Rio and Hard Rock casinos offered Blackjack Blitz with very favorable rules. I was able to take advantage of the Rio game and rack up points on my slot card before they pulled the plug on the game. Over at Hard Rock, they kept the game going, but re-programmed less player favorable rules making the game not worth playing. 

The third type of video blackjack, Digital 21, uses a live dealer. Instead of plastic cards, electronic cards appear on a screen imbedded in the layout in front of players. Except for the electronic cards and electronic shuffling, it's a traditional game: players can make bets using casino chips and the dealer collects losing bets and pays off winners. 

Here are some tips about video blackjack games:

1. Check out the rules and make sure you can quickly compute the casino's edge based on the rules that are offered.
2. If a video machine only pays even money for a blackjack, don't play.
3. Usually machines that pay 3 to 2 on a blackjack will do so only if you bet an even amount of money. If you bet an odd amount you'll get short-changed on the payoff, so always bet in even increments when you play video blackjack machines.
4. Always use the appropriate basic playing strategy for the rules. Even though you are playing a video blackjack game, the traditional basic playing strategy is effective in reducing the casino's edge.
5. Always use your player card to get points for your play. In the case of Digital 21, make sure you get rated.
6. The majority of video blackjack machines use one deck of cards and shuffle after every round. However, if you come across one that is programmed with multiple decks of cards that are shuffled after 50% or so of the cards have been used, then card counting can be an effective strategy. 

Dr. Henry Tamburin is the author of Blackjack: Take the Money & Run and editor of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter. For a free subscription to the newsletter visit www.smartgaming.com. For a free catalog call (888) 353-3234. 

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Tourney Play: Blackjack and Craps  
by Bill Burton

I love playing tournaments. I like the excitement of competing against other players instead of just playing against the house. In past issues of Midwest Gaming & Travel I have written about playing poker, slots and video poker tournaments. This month I'll cover tournaments for two of the most popular table games, blackjack and craps. 

Blackjack and craps tournaments are not as readily found as slot tournaments. This is due largely to the space requirements for these types of tournaments. Casinos have thousands of slot machines and it is no problem to shut down a couple banks of them to hold a tournament. However, since the casinos have a smaller number of blackjack and craps tables available, it makes it difficult to close off tables for a tournament. This is why you will find many of the smaller blackjack and craps tournaments during the week, but some casinos also offer larger invitational tournaments that span several days.

Daily or Weekly Tournaments 

These are the tournaments held during the week to attract players into the casino. Daily tournaments usually have a modest entry fee. In some cases you may find a free tournament, although these are not as common as the free slot tournaments. 

Invitational Tournaments

Invitational tournaments are sometimes held as a reward or comp for loyal players. There are also some invitational tournaments held for players who specified an interest in them on their player's club application. These are not open to the general public. Usually the tournament kicks off with a welcome party and wraps up with an awards banquet. Some of these last two or three days and include free lodging.

PRIZES

If you have to pay an entry fee you will want to know how much money will be returned to the players. The best paid tournaments to enter are the ones that give back all the entry fees in the form of prizes. The majority of the entry fees should be returned to the players. Casinos hold tournaments to attract players into their establishments. They will be making money from additional play made by the entrants. If the tournament is free, the prize money should be enough to justify your time to play. Is the prize money guaranteed? Casinos should list the prizes and make this information available before you enter. You can take a look at the prize structure of a tournament and determine how much is being returned to the players. If the tournament is free, you need to assess if it is worth your time to participate.

RULES

Before you enter the tournament you should know all the rules. What will be required of you when playing? Is there a minimum bet and maximum bet? How many rounds will be played and how long will they last. Not all tournaments are run the same way and you want to make sure you know all the rules before you start. Tournaments that last a few days usually have a welcoming party where all the rules are given to the players. I suggest that you find out ahead of time what the rules and prizes are before you travel to play in a tournament. If the promoters are hesitant about giving you all the rules up front, you may want to pass on that tournament. 

TIME

Some tournaments can run for hours or even days. You should know how much time it will take. Some tournaments have you play an early round to qualify, with the final rounds later in the day. This is done to ensure that you will stick around and play while you are waiting for the next round of the tournament. 

FORMAT

You should know if the tournament has a maximum or minimum number of players allowed to participate. This will give you an indication of the competition. 

COST

Will you be using your own money or will you be given tournament chips? Tournaments that use chips give each player a certain amount of starting chips. These tournaments have a fixed cost. Some of the blackjack and craps tournaments require players to use their own money. 

I once entered a craps tournament that was billed as a Roll-a-Thon. My invitation letter said I would receive three complimentary nights along with free entry into the tournament with the opportunity to win the $3,000 first prize. 

I called and made reservations and was told I would be given all the details about the tournament at the "Welcome Crapshooter Rules and Cocktail Party." I assumed it would be a normal type of tournament where each player participates by using tournament chips with players competing to amass the biggest bankroll. I was in for a big surprise when the rules were handed out and the tournament was explained at the welcome party. 

This tournament was a Sharpshooter Marathon. Each player would have their individual rolls tracked every time they shot the dice. The player with the most rolls over the four-day 34-hour period would win the top prize. Then they explained the other details.

1. Each player would use his or her own money.
2. Entrants had to make a minimum $10 bet on either the pass line or the don't pass line. I have heard of tournaments where players must use their own money. A $10 bet on the line is not unreasonable; however there was one more rule that was a real shocker. 
3. Each entrant must make a $10 pass line or don't pass bet on every shooter at the table. Not only did you have to bet on each shooter, but the tables were also open to shooters not participating in the tournament and you were required to bet on those shooters as well. 

I participated in the tournament the first day. I received the dice to shoot only twice in an hour and a half. In that time I determined that this particular tournament was not a good value. It doesn't take a math genius to figure out that the casino would earn enough money from the house edge to pay for all the prizes they were offering and more. I dropped out of the competition and was disappointed that I had made a special trip to Las Vegas to participate in this event. I had no one to blame but myself. It was my mistake for not demanding to know the rules up front before I made airline reservations. Knowing all the rules ahead of time will save you from this type of surprise. 

REGISTRATION

Some tournaments let you sign up a day in advance, but most of the smaller ones have registration a few hours before the tournament starts. The first thing you will do is visit the registration table. This is where you will pay your entry fee and receive your time and table assignment. You should have already read the rules, but this is a good time to take another look at them. If you have any questions about the rules this is the time to ask, not after the tournament has begun.

Be prepared to be at your designated table about 15 minutes before you are scheduled to play. Many tournaments will disqualify you if you show up late. This will also give you a few minutes to gather your thoughts and get ready for the action. 

GENERAL STRATEGY

It doesn't matter if you are playing in a craps or blackjack tournament, your goal is to do what it takes to get to the next round. Many tournament players have adopted the simple strategy of betting big in hopes of growing their bankroll quickly or busting out trying. While this may sound good, if it works you don't really want to bust out of a tournament on your first hand. It is usually better to bet the minimum for the first few hands while the other players are going for the quick score. Making minimum bets to begin with will allow you to have sufficient chips to adjust your playing strategy as the round progresses. 

LUCK

Blackjack and certain craps bets have a very low house edge over the long run. However you need to remember that you are not playing against the house, you are playing against the other players in the tournament. You are also playing a very limited number of hands. Anything can and will happen in the short run. This is due to the luck factor, which you will encounter in a tournament. There will be some situations where you will have to play differently than you would normally play in a live game and hope that you get lucky. This is not to say that the tournament will be won completely on luck, but a little luck will help you along. 

BLACKJACK

There are two types of blackjack tournaments. At one tournament you are competing against only the players at your table. The second type has you competing against all of the players at all of the other tables. The format where you compete against the players at your table is the most popular, especially where there are a limited number of blackjack tables available for a tournament and there has to be multiple qualifying rounds. 

Although the specific rules may vary a little, this is the basic format for a tournament I recently played in. 

There were 72 entrants for the tournament. The casino had set up six tables to be used for the event. There were six players assigned to each table. The first set of 36 players took their seats at 9 a.m. and the second set was scheduled for an hour later. 

Players received $1,000 in tournament chips for their $50 entry fee. The minimum bet for each hand was $100 and the maximum bet was $5,000. Players were told that they had to keep their chips in stacks of the same denomination and visible for all the other players at the table to see. This was done so you could determine how many chips your opponents had. 

The tournament round consisted of 30 hands of blackjack and at the end of that time the two players with the most chips at each table advanced to the semi-final round. In a standard game the dealer will deal the first card to the player at first base, but in a tournament it rotates every hand since all betting is done in order. Before we started the tournament, one card was dealt to each player and the player with the high card was designated as first base. The deal then moved to the left with the player in the first spot making the first bet and each player making their bets after one another. This gives a little advantage to the person betting last as he can adjust his bets strategically. 

MY STRATEGY

I was in the second round and took my seat at the table. The dealer dealt for high card and I was third to act during the first hand. The player to my immediate left must have read about the win or bust strategy because he bet all of his chips on the first hand. He lost and we were down to five players after the first hand. 

I have a strategy that I use to try and increase my chips without risking it all on one bet. I call it the "quarter strategy." I wait until it is my turn to bet last and if no one else has made an extremely large bet, I will bet one quarter of my chips. If I have $800 in chips I will bet $200. If I win that bet I will parlay my winnings and try to win two bets in a row. For example, I bet $200 and win $200; my next bet is $400. If I win the second bet I have now doubled my starting bankroll and am usually in good position. If I were to lose the original bet I still have enough chips to try this play again. 

On this particular day I won the first bet. I now had $400 bet on the next hand and $600 left in my stack. I was dealt an 8 and 3 for a double down situation. I put up another $400 which would leave me with $200 if I lost. I drew a 10 for 21 and collected $800 giving me a total of $1,800 and enough to advance into the semi-final round. 

AN ODD LOSS

During the semi-final round I was in second chip position with $900. The player to my right was the closest one to me with $500. He had to act before me and he bet $250 leaving him with $250. If he won he would only have $750 so I bet the minimum $100 which would still give me the lead with $800 if I lost. 

I smiled as he was dealt a 10 and a 3 for 13. I had 17 and the dealer was showing a six up. I was sure I had made it to the finals. But when it was this player's time to act he pushed his remaining chips in and told the dealer he wanted to double down on his 13. He drew a 7 for 20. The dealer turned over a 2 for eight and then drew a 10 for 18. I lost leaving me with $800 and the guy who doubled his 13 now had $1,000 and a spot at the final table. I don't know why he did not just bet all his chips ahead of me but apparently he realized his mistake and then got lucky with his double down. Remember what I said about luck? 

CRAPS

The basic format for most craps tournaments and one that I played in after the Roll-a-thon is as follows. At the time of registration everyone was assigned a time and a table. The casino was using two tables for the tournament and the players received $1,000 in tournament chips to play with. There were 12 players assigned to each table. To start the tournament the boxman rolled the dice and the number corresponded to a player at the table. That player got to roll the dice first. The minimum bet was $50 and the maximum was $5,000. Every player was required to have a pass line or don't pass bet active on every roll. Other than that requirement, you were free to make any other bets you wanted to at the table. 

The tournament session lasted for 30 minutes. At the end of that time, there were three more rolls and the players had to make their bets in order, starting with the player shooting the dice and moving to his left. Once you made your bet you were not allowed to make any additional bets. 

There were also a few additional rules that the players were required to follow. You had to keep your chips visible in your rack at all times. This was done so that other players could try to determine how much money each player had. If you were not making a bet you could not be holding any chips in your hand. One additional rule was that you could not talk to the other players or discuss strategy. 

STRATEGY

In some ways, a craps tournament is a lot fairer than other tournaments because each player is betting on the exact same rolls of the dice. Therefore it is a player's betting strategy that determines if he is the winner. 

Many of the players will be betting the high odds proposition bets in hopes of catching a big win. Unless they are lucky, they will quickly lose a good portion of their bankroll. You should try betting the minimum early in the tournaments and bet opposite the crowd. If all the other players are on the pass line you can make a small don't pass bet. If the decision goes in your favor you have gained on a majority of the players. 

In a craps tournament I found it is better to try and grind a small win unless you find you are getting too far behind the leader. If this happens it may be necessary to bet it all in order to advance. You don't want to do this on one number though. Try placing the 6 and 8 for as much as possible along with a pass line bet. If the leader bets before you, you can bet the opposite of him in hopes of catching up if you win. If you lose, you've given it your best shot and will have to wait for another day. 

TRY A TOURNAMENT

Preceding were just a few general strategy guidelines. It would be impossible to cover all the strategy in this article. There have been books written that cover strategy for many more situations. If you plan to play tournaments on a regular basis you might want to read some additional information. It is my hope that this article has given you an understanding of how the tournaments are played and perhaps sparked your interest to try your hand at one. Your best bet is to try a small, low limit tournament first. Tournaments are fun and exciting. Why not give one a try. 

Bill Burton is the Casino Gambling Guide and columnist for the Internet portal About.com. He also writes for several national gambling publications. He is the author of "Get the Edge at Low Limit Texas Hold'em" available for $15. Send checks to Bill Burton, PO Box 310299, Newington, CT 06131-0299 or order at: http://vegas.home.attbi.com/

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Keeping Your Cool At A Hot Table  
by Walter Thomason

I had a wonderful dream a few nights ago. I dreamed that a benevolent alien being from another dimension in time woke me from a sound sleep. He (she?) told me that he (she?) had been watching me for many years and, since I was such a kind, generous, loving human being, I would be granted one wish that I could use for the rest of my life. Since it was obvious that this alien creature had seriously misjudged my true character, I quickly wished for the one thing that any degenerate blackjack player would wish for: I wished for the ability to know if my next hand of blackjack would be a winner. The alien said, "No prob, Buddy. You now have the talent you wished for. See ya," and then disappeared.  

The next evening I gleefully rushed to my local casino to try out my newly-granted talent, and much to my dismay discovered that it was all a dream ‹ a bad dream at that because I got hammered at the tables. My ability to predict winning streaks was even worse than usual, and my faith in wishes granted by alien beings from other dimensions was seriously shaken, to say the least. 

But working on the assumption that it's always good to find something positive in a negative experience, and accepting the fact that there's no free lunch at the blackjack table, I decided to give some serious thought as to how to take advantage of winning streaks when I was fortunate enough to experience them. 

Any experienced player can relate to the fact that blackjack is a "streaky" game. After 30 years at the tables, I could tell you dozens of stories about winning streaks that went on for hours, days, even weeks at a time. Unfortunately, these winning streaks were often followed by losing streaks that also went on for hours, days, or weeks at a time. 

The problem is, even though it's obvious that streaks occur, it's darn near impossible to take advantage of streaks because we only know that they exist in hindsight. We have to look back at previous play to see that we experienced a winning or losing streak, and by then it's too late to take advantage of a winning streak or avoid a losing streak. So what is one to do? Do we just ignore streaks as if they don't exist, or do we seek out and apply some "mystical" method to take advantage of them? 

Most statistical analysts of the game (the math guys who believe that card counting is the only way to accurately predict the outcome of the next hand to be dealt) take the former approach. They ignore streaks, refer to them as natural "variance," and play the game with total confidence that long-term results will allow them a slight "edge" over the casino. They gradually increase or decrease their initial wagers based upon deck composition, and ignore the short-term fluctuations in win/loss results. 

Other players take the latter approach to the game by attempting to intuitively decide when they are going to be lucky and win, or unlucky and avoid play. They dramatically increase their bets when they "feel" a winning streak coming, and they quit playing when they feel a losing streak is on the way. They live for the moment, and base the size of their next wager on the win/loss outcome of the previous hand(s) played. 

After much thought, research, and personal experience at the tables, I've come to the conclusion that neither of these approaches to the game offers any reasonable chance of success for the average recreational player. Card counting requires skill, discipline, longevity, and a bankroll that few players have, and no one has the mystical foresight required to predict future results of play with any successful degree of accuracy. 

In spite of my pessimistic attitude toward these two common methods of play, I believe that there are a number of actions that we can take that will allow us to benefit from winning streaks ‹ actions based upon principles inherent in the previously described methods of play, the basic mathematics of the game, common sense, and money management. 

Before exploring ways to "be cool" when winning streaks occur, let's look at a few of the mathematical "basics" of the game.

1. The casino has a built-in advantage over the player, primarily because the rules state that the player loses his wager if his hand exceeds a count of 21, even if the dealer also exceeds 21 on the same round of play. 
2. Game rules vary from one casino to the next. The more "player friendly" the rules, the better the chances that he will win. 
3. In the long run, the average player will lose about 2% of the total amount wagered (about $2 for every $100 bet). 
4. Excluding "pushes," players will win about 48% and lose about 52% of the hands played. 
5. The "chance" factor can seriously affect the results of short-term play. For instance, even though long-term probability states that skilled basic strategy players will lose about 50¢ for every $100 wagered, it's estimated that a player still has a 25% chance of being ahead at the tables after 25,000 hands of play. 

Based upon the preceding generalizations, it's obvious that a player can only make a profit at blackjack if he (A.) Wins more hands than the average player, (B.) Wins more money on his winning hands than the average player wins, or (C.) Is more lucky than the average player. 

By applying most or all of the techniques listed below, I believe that the average player can seriously improve his long-term outcome in all three of these categories.

1. Learn to apply perfect basic strategy all of the time. Most players use some form of basic strategy (based upon the values of the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card) to help make hit, stand, split, and double-down decisions. All of these strategy recommendations favor the player, and collectively reduce the house edge from 2% or more to one-half percent or less. Unfortunately, most players arbitrarily alter or ignore the proper playing strategy because of bet size or intuition. You must not do this. Do you seriously believe that the cards know how much money you have wagered on a particular hand, or that the cards care what you think the next card out of the deck will be? Of course not.
2. Play at casinos with rules that favor you. Casinos that allow you to split any pair, double down on any two cards, double after splitting, split aces more than once, or surrender a weak hand, are offering you game rules that improve your chances of winning. If we all refused to play at casinos that have lousy game rules, they would eventually change the rules.
3. React to the flow of the cards, even if you're not a card counter. Common sense dictates that decks with a disproportionately larger number of 10-value cards and aces remaining to be dealt favor the player because he's more likely to draw a two-card hand of 20 or a blackjack. You don't have to be a math guru to realize that 10 small cards have appeared for every face card dealt, or to observe that no aces have been dealt in the first two-thirds of the deck. Pay more attention to the table, increase your bet appropriately, and you'll most likely see an increase in the size of your chip stack. 
4. Don't get greedy. Many's the time I've seen a player on a winning streak over-bet his hands. After a few consecutive wins, a feeling of invincibility overcomes sensible prudence, the size of the next bet increases substantially, and the profit from many previous hands is wiped out on the turn of one card. It's even worse to increase initial bet size after a series of losses, on the assumption that you're "due" to win a hand. Remember that you're more likely to lose a series of consecutive bets than you are to win a series of consecutive bets. 
5. Don't become too conservative. Expecting to not win a lot of money during any particular blackjack session is almost as bad as over-betting your hands. Many gambling book authors suggest that you set a loss limit and a win goal for each session of play. They recommend that you start with a specific bankroll, quit play if you lose all or a portion of that bankroll, or quit play if you win a predetermined amount in proportion to that bankroll. For instance, if you lose all (or 50%, or 30%, etc.) of your session bankroll, quit play. Or if you win an amount that's equal to your bankroll (or twice your bankroll, or half your bankroll, etc.), quit play. 

I see nothing wrong with quitting play if you've lost all or part of your bankroll, but I see no reason to quit while you're winning. We know that streaks occur, and we know that there's no obvious way to determine when they will end, so I advise you to keep playing until they do. 

Personally, I've never intentionally stopped playing while on a winning streak. In fact, my normal method of play is to double my initial bet once I've doubled my initial bank. I "predetermine" how much I'm willing to lose before reducing my initial bet or quitting play, and make the necessary changes based on my current win/loss results. In retrospect, my personal record for several years shows that profits for 25% of my sessions exceed losses for 75% of my sessions, primarily due to the fact that I didn't limit my potential profit during winning streaks. 

6.  Develop your own style of play, but don't fall in love with it.

Consistency is the key to success at blackjack. Many players are habitual losers because they fail to stick to a game plan that fits their personality and bankroll. As a recreational gambler, your overall objective should be to win more money (or lose less money) than other players, and it's unlikely that you'll reach this goal unless you "stay with the program" and give your plan a reasonable chance to succeed. 

By the same token, don't become so entrenched in your plan that you stay with it through thick and thin. The most common example of this mistake is when players have short-term success by varying from correct basic strategy. I hear it all the time: "I don't split aces, because I lose both hands every time I do." "I don't hit 12 against a dealer's 2, because I always bust." "I split 10s when the dealer shows a 6, because I almost always win both hands." "I never surrender." "I never split or double-down when I have a big bet on the table, because it doubles my chances of losing a lot of money." Players develop these bad habits because they "tried it" a few times, and it worked. Based on these short-term gains (in defiance of more probable outcomes) some players retain these incorrect strategy decisions as part of their long-term game plan, and seriously reduce their overall chances of winning. 

7. Be honest with yourself. One of the best ways to measure the quality of your chosen style of play is to keep an accurate record of your results. Most players tend to exaggerate the amount they win and understate the amount they lose. Write down the results of each and every session, and there will be no question as to how well your plan is working. If you show a profit after several thousand hands of play, stay with your game plan. If you're a consistent loser, review your plan and change what you need to change. Perhaps you're failing to apply perfect basic strategy, or your judgment is being altered by that extra free cocktail or two, or your bankroll is too small to sustain your current level of play. Whatever the case, try to figure out if something other than the natural flow of the cards is causing you to lose, and correct the problem. 
8. You can always quit playing if you're losing. As unscientific as this may sound, I find that gaming sessions that begin with a disproportionate amount of money being lost often lead to even more money being lost, and that "shoe" games that begin with many consecutive losing hands usually lead to losing shoes. 

Here's a suggestion: Quit play at a table (or wait for a new shoe to begin) if you lose four consecutive hands. Try this for several thousand hands, record your results, and compare them to previous results. You might be surprised at the difference. Even if you doubt the value of this strategy, the worst that can happen is that you will lose a little playing time. 

Well, that's it, folks. I've shared with you some of my "semi-mystical," but mainly common-sense ways to keep your cool at a hot table. Now get out there and knock-em dead. 

 Walter Thomason is a recreational gambler who has written several top-selling books on the subject of casino gaming. He can be reached at waltersbj@AOL.com. 

 Walter Thomason is a recreational gambler who has written several top-selling books on the subject of casino gaming. He can be reached at waltersbj@AOL.com. 

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Winning Hands in Blackjack 
by Henry Tamburin

When you play blackjack your final hand can only be one of these possibilities ‹ a blackjack, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16 or less, or you could bust. 

When you bust, you know you automatically lose and when you get a blackjack hand, the worst you can do is tie, and the best is get paid a bonus of 1.5 times your bet. But what are your chances of winning when you stand on your 17 ­ 21? You would hope they are pretty good, but that's not always the case. 

Let's take the example of standing on 17 in a six-deck game where the dealer stands on soft 17. Most players are happy to have a 17, and thankfully stand. However, you will lose more money than you win when the dealer shows any card other than a 6. You will lose the most money when the dealer shows a 9, and the least when he shows a 4 or 5. It's only when the dealer has a 6 showing that you stand a fighting chance of winning some money in the long run. 

So what's a player to do? Actually, there is nothing you can do. Hitting a hard 17 would result in even greater losses, so the lesser of two evils is to stand. Now don't get me wrong. Often times you will stand on 17 and win a hand, but over time you will end up losing more than you win (except against the dealer's 6). Standing on 17 is definitely not utopia. 

Because 17 is not a good hand, this is the reason you should never stand on soft 17 (you should hit or double down). Also in a game where the dealer hits soft 17, a player faces an additional disadvantage. 

Suppose we end up with 18 and stand. Surely we must fair better than standing on 17. And we do, but not as much as you think. You'll make money on that 18 in the long run when the dealer shows a 2 through 8 face card, but you'll lose money against the dealer's 9, 10 or ace. This is the reason you should hit rather than stand on soft 18 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace. 

In one of my seminars on casino gambling I asked the audience if they would be interested in the following casino proposition. Namely, they would allow you to bet as much as you want at blackjack and they would give you an automatic 18 on every hand. Would you take that bet? If you did, you would wind up losing about 60¢ for every $100 you wagered. Like it or not, 18 won't make us a winner when we play. 

Now what about standing on 19? Surely, this must be a winning hand. Well almost. The exception is when the dealer shows a 10 or ace. If the dealer shows those cards, our 19 still isn't good enough, and in the long run we will lose more than we win. 

It's only when we have a 20 that we really have a strong hand. Against any dealer's upcard including an ace, we will make money in the long run. Since 20 is such a strong hand, this is the reason 10-10 should never be split and A-9 should never be doubled. You've got a winning hand with 20, so it's best to leave it alone. 

It shouldn't come as a surprise, therefore, to find out that about 70% of your total winnings at blackjack arise from being dealt these two hands ­ A-10 and 10-10. Nearly all the rest of your winnings come from these five hands: 11, 10-9, 10, A-9, and A-8. It's important therefore to know the correct playing strategy for them because they count so much toward your overall chances of winning. In multiple-deck games, always double down on 11 when the dealer shows 10 or less, and double on 10 when the dealer shows 9 or less. You should always stand on hard and soft 19. With a soft 18, you double down when the dealer shows a 3 through 6, hit when he shows a 9, 10 or ace, and stand on 2, 7, and 8. 

On the losing side of things, the following hands will account for about 85% of our financial losses: hard 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17. We already covered the 17 and it should come as no surprise that the stiff 12 through 16 hands are overall losers even when we follow the basic playing strategy (if we played by the seat of our pants, we'd lose even more). 

Statistics are nice to know, but it won't put money in your pocket. What will add to your piggy bank is knowing the basic playing strategy and betting more when the undealt cards are rich in 10s and aces (i.e. learn card counting). That's how you can turn the odds in your favor when you play blackjack.

Dr. Henry Tamburin is the author of Blackjack: Take the Money & Run and editor of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter. For a free subscription to the newsletter visit www.smartgaming.com. For a free catalog call (888) 353-3234. 

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No More Worries About Making Dumb Plays  
by Henry Tamburin

Last month, in the interest of dissipating a few fears that novice players have about blackjack, we reviewed some basics about the objective of the game. This month we'll go over playing rules.

Taking a hit in blackjack means you want the dealer to give you another card. You would normally take a hit when the value of your hand is low. The risk when you hit is that if you bust, you automatically lose. You must signal the dealer that you want another card by making a beckoning motion with your finger or scratching it on the felt (this is done for security reasons). When you ask for another card, the

 dealer gives it to you face up. You can ask for as many cards as you want, but remember the loss rule if you bust.

If you are satisfied with the total of your hand, you should stand. Signal this by waving your hand over the cards.

You can double your initial wager in blackjack by one of two very important ways. The first is known as doubling down and the second is pair splitting.

When you want to double down, you match your original bet by placing the equivalent amount of chips next to (not on top) your original bet. The dealer will give you one and only one more card. Strategically, it's wise to double down when your initial two-card hand totals 11 or 10. You are hoping of course to draw a 10 or picture card for a 20 or 21. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but in the long run you'll win more money by doubling down on these hands compared to hitting.

If you have a pair, you have the option of splitting them and playing out two hands. Suppose you bet $5 and are dealt a pair of 8s for a 16. You are much better off splitting the 8s and playing two hands starting with 8 than playing the initial hand as a 16. To initiate the pair splitting you would double your bet just like you do when you double down (place the secondary bet next to the initial bet).

Finally, there is an option known as insurance. It's a bad bet for players, so I won't waste time explaining the bet. Just do nothing when the dealer asks you if you want to make the insurance bet.

Now that you've got the hang of how the game is played, what is left is to give you a quick-and-dirty set of just eight playing rules that will determine how you play every hand dealt to you. These Simplified Basic Strategy Rules are from the book, Knock-Out Blackjack by Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs, an excellent book that I highly recommend for beginners. By learning these eight rules, you can expect a 99% payback when you play blackjack, which is better than almost any other game you can play in the casino, including the slots.

Simplified Basic Strategy Rules

1. Never take insurance

2. Always split pairs of 8s and aces

3. If your two cards total 10 or 11, double down if your total is greater than the dealer's upcard'

4. With 17 or more, always stand

5. With 12 through 16, hit against a dealer's upcard of 7 or more, otherwise stand

6. With 11 or less, always hit (unless doubling)

7. With soft 18 or more, always stand

8. With soft 17 or less, always hit

  (Note: you can increase your payback even more by learning the complete basic strategy rules, which are slightly more complex than these simplified rules).

Let's try a few hands to see how easy this is. Suppose you are dealt a 6, 5 (11) and the dealer's upcard is a 5. By rule #3 you should double down. Likewise if your hand is 7, 3 (10) and the dealer shows a 9, you would double down. However, if you had a 6, 4 (10) and dealer shows a 10, by rule #3 you would hit, not double.

If you were dealt a queen and 7 (17) you would stand (rule #4). Likewise, you would also stand if you were dealt a 5 and 8 (13) and the dealer shows a 6 (rule #5).

To further bolster your confidence, practice this strategy by playing blackjack at home with a friend. Keep playing until you can make every play by these rules. You can also practice your strategy using any number of blackjack computer software programs or you can play for fun at an Internet site that offers blackjack.

Once you are ready to take the plunge and make your first bet, do one more thing. Jot down this strategy on an index card and take it with you when you play. Hold the card in your hand (don't lay it on the table) and use it as a sort of "cheat sheet." Don't worry, this is perfectly legal.

Now let's go back to the original reason that you won't play blackjack. You are afraid of making a dumb play. With this  simplified playing strategy, you'll be playing a better game of blackjack than most of your fellow players. So stop worrying.

Repeat after me. "I can learn how to play blackjack with the right strategy and I can win." Say it a few times, then go for it. Once you do, you'll be pleasantly surprised at the ease and fun with which you can play blackjack.

Dr. Henry Tamburin is the author of Blackjack: Take the Money & Run and editor of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter. For a free subscription to the newsletter visit www.smartgaming.com. For a free copy of Tamburin's catalog call (888) 353-3234.

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A Day In The Life Of A Card Counter  
by Fred Renzey 

This is a story about a fella named JoJo Finelli. JoJo is a blackjack card counter. He doesn’t play blackjack for a living — he plays just for fun and profit. He likes it that way. JoJo plays blackjack when he wants, if he wants, for as many hours as he wants. He doesn’t win every time he plays, but he does book a winning session about seven out of 12 times. JoJo’s gone on like this for thousands of hours over the years. 

One afternoon, JoJo’s friend Nickey asked him why he never gets sick of playing blackjack. JoJo answered Nickey from a perspective with which it’s hard to argue. “Hey Nickey, how much do like to play golf?” JoJo quizzed. “You kiddin? You know I love golf. I could golf every day and never get enough of it,” Nickey responded enthusiastically. 

“Then what keeps you from doing it?” quizzed JoJo. “C’mon JoJo, golf takes up a lotta time for one thing,” Nickey defended. “And then you gotta have nice clubs, the right shoes, a trunk full of golf balls — and the green fees ain’t too cheap after a while either, ya’ know,” he concluded. 

“So you’d be willing to golf just about whenever you could, if you had the time and it didn’t cost too much, is that right?” surmised JoJo. “Yeah I guess. When it’s in your blood, it’s in your blood,” admitted Nickey. 

So JoJo laid the following analogy on him. “Nickey,” he began, “suppose somebody came up to you and said they’d love to have you play golf at their country club, on the house, no green fees, no dues, nothin.’ In fact, they’d even give you a free dinner just for playing a round of golf on their course anytime you want, as often as you want. If you came with a friend, the club would buy dinner for the both of you. You wouldn’t have to bring a thing. They’d give you and your friend a good set of clubs, balls, everything you need. You’d never have to call ahead for a tee time either. Just show up unannounced on the spur of the moment and step right up to the tee box, no waiting. And as some added frosting on the cake, stop on by the clubhouse when you’re finished and they’ll even pay you for playing — sort of. How’s that sound?” 

“What’ya mean, they’d sort of pay me?” asked Nickey with suspicion in his voice. JoJo went on to explain. “Well, a round of golf takes maybe five hours to play at a leisurely pace. So let’s say they agree to pay you an average of $50 an hour just for your trouble. Only thing is, it won’t always be exactly $50 an hour. What happens when you check out at the clubhouse is, they’ll flip a coin. One side of the coin says, ‘You pay us $2,500.’ The other side reads, ‘We pay you $3,000.’ And you both agree to live by the flip of the coin. Sometimes you’ll make a nice piece of change, and sometimes it’ll cost you a hunk. But if you play golf enough times, you’ll wind up getting paid an average of $250 for every round of golf — 50 bucks an hour. Ya’ think you could live with that?” 

“In a heartbeat,” answered Nickey. “But nobody’s gonna pay anybody $50 an hour and give ‘em a couple of free dinners just to come and use their place of business.” That’s where JoJo had him dead to rights. “Not to play golf, but they will to play blackjack,” he explained. Nickey wasn’t too sure about the whole scenario. It didn’t sound realistic to him. But JoJo knew better. He’d been doing it for years. So Nickey and JoJo parted company. Nickey went home, called the local golf course and tried to reserve a tee time. JoJo drove out to a nearby casino to play a few hours of blackjack.  

JoJo hadn’t been to the Desiree Casino yet that week. He likes to spread himself around so as to not give pit personnel too many looks at him in a short time. As he entered the blackjack area he casually circled the tables, looking for a dealer who would be shuffling. JoJo never walks up to a table cold with the shoe already partially dealt. He needs to see — and count every card from the get-go. 

Tanya was just finishing her last riffle on table 22, right next to a roulette wheel. So JoJo nonchalantly sauntered up to the roulette table, pretending to be noting the previous numbers on the roulette reader board. There were three players at table 22 as Tanya put the cards in the shoe and was ready to deal the first round. It still wasn’t time for JoJo to move in. The house always has the edge off the top of any shoe. JoJo must “backcount” the first few rounds to see if a surplus of small cards comes out, leaving an excess of high ones in the shoe, which in turn will sway the advantage over to the players. This will occur on roughly 30% of the shoes. 

With his back to the blackjack table, JoJo can hear the first round of cards coming out. He’ll wait four, five, six seconds, then turn around and stride leisurely past the table, counting the entire board layout as he passes. “2-5-6-3-1-9-8-2,” he’s got it — the running count is +2. JoJo then stops at a slot machine at the other end of table 22, waiting the 10 or 12 seconds he knows it will take the dealer to settle all bets and get out the second layout of cards. Now he turns around and repeats the process, never stopping, always looking interested in something else. A deck into this six-deck shoe has the running count at -4; a bustout. So JoJo strolls toward another table where the dealer is shuffling, and backcounts there also. 

This “backcounting” routine is what JoJo uses to skew the overall distribution of cards he’ll be dealt more in his favor. On this particular day it took three backcounted shoes to find the first advantageous count. On some days it takes more, others less. A deck-and-a-half into this third shoe, the “true count” reaches +2. JoJo observed this while looking over his shoulder from the craps table. That means the players now have a 0.7% edge on the shoe rather than the typical 0.4% disadvantage. 

He nonchalantly steps up to the table, tosses his players card and 10 $100 bills on the $25 minimum felt. “Hi JoJo, how they runnin’ today?” asked Sandy the dealer, as she spread the cash out on the table for the camera to see. “Having one of my better days — only stuck $400,” replied JoJo. No matter how he may be doing, JoJo always claims to be losing. 

Sandy counted out $500 in green chips along with five blacks and announced, “Changing $1,000.” The floorman came over, took a look and repeated, “$1,000,” as he picked up JoJo’s player card saying, “How goes it Mr. F?” JoJo had been to this and all the local casinos far too often to not be known by management. Card counters often like to remain unknown obscure entities — hitting and running like thieves in the night. But JoJo believes that playing with enough skill to win is only half the game. The other half is appearing to possess no such skill. Card counting longevity requires being both a Rhodes scholar and a street hustler at the same time. 

JoJo placed a $150 bet and was dealt his least favorite hand — 16 against a 10. Most typical players will hit this hand every time like religion. But with the +2 true count, the correct move is to stand. So JoJo says, “You know what Sandy? I busted out the last 10 straight times I hit this miserable 16 — so let’s try sittin’ on it this time.” Sandy turned up an eight in the hole for a pat 18 and scooped in his $150. JoJo winced in feigned pain, the other two players looked at him as if he was an idiot and the true count rose to +2.5. 

JoJo bet $200 on the next hand and received a soft 19 against Sandy’s 5-up. Here was another situation where with this count, doubling down was better than the basic strategy play of just standing. So JoJo slid out another $200 saying, “No gamble, no glory.” He always likes to use typical gambler’s clichés to rationalize his apparent motives. JoJo bought an eight to make 17 while the dealer made a four-card 20 as the true count rose to +3. Scooping in JoJo’s $400, Sandy admonished, “Why couldn’t you just leave a good hand alone?” “I thought you’d be nice enough to bust — but no,” joked JoJo. 

With more than a 1% edge on the current composition of the shoe, JoJo now uses the following ruse to get more chips into play; “We gotta change your cards Sandy, you’re killing us. How ‘bout if I add another hand?” The other two players shrugged cluelessly, and JoJo placed two $200 bets, leaving only $50 in front of him. Sandy fires a 10/10 and a 7/4 to JoJo against her own 8-up — two very attractive situations. “Damn” complained JoJo, “I promised myself I wouldn’t go past a thousand in the game today. But I gotta’ double against you here Sandy.” So JoJo timidly lays another $1,000 on the table, wins both hands and goes on to net a $500 profit by the end of the shoe. “That coulda’ been ugly.” exhales JoJo at the shuffle. “If you don’t bust out with that eight up a few hands back Sandy, I might be stuck $2,000,” he reassures the house. 

Now JoJo puts one black chip in the betting circle while Sandy does her shuffle routine. He’d like to bet the “quarter” minimum off the top, but finishing the shoe with a $400 bet, then dropping right down to $25 would look too deliberate. It may take the first three hands to work his bet back down to $25. JoJo always tries to appear to be shooting from the hip when sizing his bets, never deliberate. He might at times make a $275 bet with two blacks, two greens and five reds along with a $405 bet containing four blacks and five whites saying, “That’s my lucky combo bet.” This he’ll do in an effort to get extra money into action without showing his carefully calculated motives. 

JoJo remained at table 23 for three more shoes that never went to a significant positive or negative count. During that time, he slipped eight $25 chips into his pocket to diminish his apparent winnings. JoJo never hides $100 chips, since he knows the house keeps a careful count of all black in the rack. Other players do however, carry green chips to and from the “quarter minimum” tables, in effect, losing the greens in the crowd. 

Early into the fifth shoe the true count plummeted to a -2.5 (a 1.5% disadvantage) where JoJo excused himself saying, “Ya’ know, I haven’t had a run here in five shoes. Le’mme color up and go shoot some craps.” JoJo was already shooting crap with that remark. He was heading across the floor in search of another positive count shoe. Sandy colored up $2,275 and JoJo tossed her a redbird ($5 chip) saying, “Thanks for keeping it close Sandy,” as he walked with a $470 win in his first 45 minutes. 

Reviewing his play at table 23, JoJo’s biggest bet was $450 — his smallest, $25. No single bet was ever more than triple the size of the last. All in all, he figures he made maybe $6,000 in total wagers. A $470 profit (8% of his action) was a very nice result since over his last 2,000 hours of play, JoJo has netted a mere .75% gain on his total action. 

Walking across the aisle, JoJo spotted a $50 table where the dealer had just finished the first round. This was a real beauty. Three players had all doubled down, split and caught little cards, then the dealer proceeded to make a six-card 21. Right off the bat, the true count rose to +2. The second round put even more small cards on the table and the true count finished up at +2.5. There could be a lot of positive hands left in this shoe. 

JoJo bought in at third base for a fresh $1,000 and played two hands of $100 each, which resulted in a wash. The count continued to rise during that round and was now at +3. JoJo stacked up his two blacks on the hand that won and bet another $200 on the losing spot. He received a 16 and a pair of 9s against the dealer’s 7-up. The other three players had small pairs and double downs bringing the true count to +4 (a 1.75% edge). An edge like this comes along only about 5% of the time, but there were too many players at the table. JoJo had to get rid of some of them so that he could get more hands in before the shuffle. What did he do? “Lucky seven,” he yelled out as he put another $200 next to his pair of 9s. “You’re splitting up a made 18 against a 7?” one of the other players asked sarcastically. “You’re breaking up a winner,” he objected. 

Now, splitting 9s against a 7 might be a sacrilege to most basic players, but with a +4 true count, it’s the best move. “I always win against a dealer’s 7 up, no matter what I do — it’s my lucky number,” replied JoJo as he busted out one nine and made a 19 on the other. 

The three players already thought JoJo was a dangerous loose cannon, but the best was yet to come. He now slid a $5 chip out next to his 16, and doubled “for less” — in effect doubling down on 16. At this, the trio was horrified. Was it truly a bad percentage move. Yes, as far as it goes. Sixteen against a 7 is a 12-5 underdog to win if you hit it, considerably worse if you stand. Every dollar riding on that situation will lose 40¢ after all the wins and losses are averaged out. So by doubling for an additional $5, JoJo was indeed just throwing a statistical $2 right out the window. He looked even dumber when the dealer busted him with a 10, then turned up a 5 in her own hole, caught an eight to make 20 and swept the board. 

The other players were emotionally destroyed. It didn’t matter to them that JoJo was perfectly correct in taking a card, be it a double or a hit. All they could remember was that this lunatic doubled down on 16 and took a card that would’ve busted the dealer. As far as they were concerned, because of him, the dealer made 20 and everybody lost. Somebody had to be blamed for this atrocity. So Mr. First Base spoke up; “Buddy, I’ve played this game all over the world and that’s the worst play I’ve ever seen. Color me up, Honey,” he then said to the dealer. The other two didn’t even wait. They just picked up their chips and stormed away, naming JoJo after various censored parts of their anatomies. As for JoJo? He got just what he wanted — 4-1/2 decks of a +4 true count shoe alone with the dealer. Now he’ll get in about 25 hands before the shuffle rather than perhaps 10. The extra 15 hands at an average bet of $500 per hand with a 1.75% edge will be worth a statistical $150. Mission accomplished. 

So how did the shoe turn out? It really doesn’t matter. Sometimes JoJo will win $3,000 in that situation and just as often he’ll lose $2,700. The thing he keeps in mind is that this is where his money gets made in blackjack. Everything else is just “waiting.” 

— Fred Renzey is Midwest Gaming & Travel’s Poker Pundit columnist and a respected poker and blackjack expert. He is the author of the Blackjack Bluebook.

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Readers' Blackjack Questions  
by Henry Tamburin 

When playing in a six-deck shoe that allows late surrender, is it proper to surrender on 15 vs. a 10? But if the 15 consists of a 7 and 8 we should hit. Why? 

The specific rule is that with four or less decks you should surrender 9+6 and 10+5 against a 10, but not 8+7. The reason you surrender the 9+6 and 10+5 is partially that a 5 or 6 is already played. Those are the two best cards for you. With the 8+7 all the 5s and 6s are still in the deck, which give you a 20 or 21 Should a basic strategy player hit on soft 18 when the dealer shows a 9, 10, or ace upcard when the soft 18 consists of more than two cards?

Yes, even if your soft 18 consists of two or more cards, you should hit. It’s a tough play but you are slightly better off hitting rather than standing. What changes to the normal basic strategy should be made with the European no-hole card rule?

You can use the normal basic playing strategy except do not double down or pair split any hand when the dealer shows a 10 or ace upcard. What is the probability of a dealer busting when he shows a 4, 5 or 6 upcard? 

The dealer will bust 40% of the time when he shows a 4 upcard, 43% when it’s a 5, and 42% when he shows a 6 upcard. Can I use a cheat sheet at the blackjack tables? — Yes, they are legal. You can purchase a hand held, plastic, laminated strategy card in most casino gift shops. I don’t recommend placing the card on the table when you play. It’s best to hold the card in your hand on your lap and refer to it when you forget a specific playing strategy. I’ve had success splitting 10s in the right situation. Is it ever OK to do it? 

It is never correct to split 10s unless you are a card counter and know that the undealt cards have a high ratio of high to low cards. The bottom line: if you are a basic strategy player, don’t split 10s. Why is splitting a pair of 4s vs. a 5 or 6 the best thing to do? Whenever I do that I get funny looks from other players, and even most of the dealers seem surprised that I want to split instead of double down. The casinos that I go to in Indiana allow doubling after a split, so I know that splitting is correct. I would sincerely appreciate your explanation, so I am better prepared to defend my correct action to other players who think I’m crazy. 

In a single-deck game you should double down on a pair of 4s when the dealer shows a 5 or 6. In multiple-deck games the better strategy is to split the 4s when the dealer shows a 5 or 6 (with DAS). The reason that pair splitting isn’t as profitable in single-deck games is because of the fragile effect of card removal. In a single-deck game the 4, 5 and 6s are important cards for the dealer to make his hand and not bust when he has a stiff. By removing the 4s (and 5 and 6) from the deck, the dealer’s chance of busting increases, therefore doubling becomes a profitable play. If a casino dealer places the dealt cards into a shuffling machine after each hand, is there any advantage to a player in using a card counting system? 

There is no advantage for the counter. However, these automatic shuffling machines also cause the average player to lose more because more hands are dealt per hour. What are the true odds of getting any blackjack hand and getting one of the same suit? 

The probability of getting any blackjack in a single-deck game is 4.82% (one in 20.7 hands) and for any suited blackjack it’s 1.21% (one hand in 82.6 hands). On splitting aces, what is the payoff if you are dealt 10s to each ace? 

You have two 21 hands and the payoff is 1 to 1 for each hand (assuming the dealer does not have a blackjack or a 21 hand). You get paid 3 to 2 on an ace+10 hand if it’s the initial two cards dealt to you (in the above example the first two cards dealt to the hand were the aces). Are the odds of winning better if you play two hands instead of one? 

The odds don’t change if you play two hands instead of one. However, when you play two hands you tend to reduce the size of the upswings and downswings in your bankroll. Therefore the greatest fluctuation in your bankroll occurs if you bet one hand of $10 compared to betting two  hands at $5 in the same game. When is the best time to make the insurance bet? 

The best time to make the insurance bet is when the ratio of non-10s to 10s in the unplayed deck(s) of cards is less than two. The only way you would know this is to learn a card counting system. If you are a non-counter, there is never a good time to make the insurance bet (i.e. pass on it). Got a blackjack question? Send it to me at Midwest Gaming & Travel and I’ll answer it in a future column. 

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